The Prediction Markets

Kathmandu Mayoral Election Winner

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 14 months
Traded
$4K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

RSP 52.7%

Next is Congress at 21.1%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

RSP 52.7%Congress 21.1%UML 10.5%Independent 10%NCP 5.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
RSP
52.7%
Polymarket 47.5%(52.7% fair)polled, 38s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
RSP
Last price
47.5%
Fair, margin removed
52.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Congress
21.1%
Polymarket 19%(21.1% fair)polled, 38s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Congress
Last price
19%
Fair, margin removed
21.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$691
Trade this on Polymarket
UML
10.5%
Polymarket 9.5%(10.5% fair)polled, 38s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
UML
Last price
9.5%
Fair, margin removed
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$941
Trade this on Polymarket
Independent
10%
Polymarket 9%(10% fair)polled, 38s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Independent
Last price
9%
Fair, margin removed
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$579
Trade this on Polymarket
NCP
5.7%
Polymarket 5.1%(5.7% fair)polled, 38s agoBest Yes 9.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
NCP
Last price
5.1%
Fair, margin removed
5.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.6¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,042 (10.4x)
Volume
$292
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • RSP
  • Congress
  • UML

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Kathmandu Mayoral Election Winner". RSP leads at 52.7%. Next is Congress at 21.1%. $4K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

Local elections in Nepal, including the election for the mayor of Kathmandu Metropolitan City (Kathmandu Mahanagarpalika), are expected to be held in 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party of the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Kathmandu as a result of this election. A candidate's party will be determined by the party under which the candidate is registered with the Election Commission, Nepal. A candidate who is only endorsed or backed by a party will not count for that party. A candidate registered without a party affiliation will count as "Independent". If a listed party merges into another party before the election, a candidate registered under the resulting party will count for the listed party; if this would apply to more than one listed party, the candidate will count for the listed party that comes first alphabetically as listed in this market. Temporary, interim, acting, or placeholder mayors will not be considered. For purposes of this market, the listed options represent political parties, or “Independent”, not individual candidates. The candidates may be named in the market options for the convenience of traders once candidacies are finalized. Any such names are for convenience only and will not affect resolution: this market will resolve based solely on the party of the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Kathmandu, as defined above. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as their party’s candidate before election day, the name in the market will be updated, and the market will resolve based on the party of the replacement candidate. If a candidate is named under “Independent”, that option will still cover any candidate registered without a party affiliation, whether or not they are named. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Nepali government, including Election Commission, Nepal (https://election.gov.np/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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