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What the markets expect
Stays with New York G or Retires 50%
Next is New Orleans at 8.6%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Stays with New York G or Retires50%58%50% fair53¢ bid, 58¢ askpolled, 58s ago58¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $172 (1.72x)Stays with New York G or Retires50%Kalshi 58%(50% fair)polled, 58s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Stays with New York G or Retires
50%
58%
50% fair
53¢ bid, 58¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
58¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Stays with New York G or Retires
50%
Kalshi 58%(50% fair)polled, 58s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Stays with New York G or Retires
- Last price
- 58%
- Fair, margin removed
- 50%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 58¢
- Sell Yes
- 53¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $172 (1.72x)
- Volume
- $11K
New Orleans8.6%10%8.6% fair6¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 58s ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)New Orleans8.6%Kalshi 10%(8.6% fair)polled, 58s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
New Orleans
8.6%
10%
8.6% fair
6¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
New Orleans
8.6%
Kalshi 10%(8.6% fair)polled, 58s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- New Orleans
- Last price
- 10%
- Fair, margin removed
- 8.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
New England2.6%3%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 58s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)New England2.6%Kalshi 3%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
New England
2.6%
3%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
New England
2.6%
Kalshi 3%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- New England
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $3K
Arizona1.7%2%1¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 58s ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Arizona1.7%Kalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Arizona
1.7%
2%
1¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Arizona
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Arizona
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $2K
Atlanta1.7%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 58s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Atlanta1.7%Kalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Atlanta
1.7%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Atlanta
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Atlanta
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $112
Baltimore1.7%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 58s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Baltimore1.7%Kalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Baltimore
1.7%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Baltimore
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Baltimore
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $70
Buffalo1.7%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 58s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Buffalo1.7%Kalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Buffalo
1.7%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Buffalo
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Buffalo
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $62
Carolina1.7%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 58s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Carolina1.7%Kalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Carolina
1.7%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Carolina
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Carolina
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $844
Chicago1.7%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 58s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Chicago1.7%Kalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Chicago
1.7%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Chicago
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Chicago
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Cincinnati1.7%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 58s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Cincinnati1.7%Kalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Cincinnati
1.7%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Cincinnati
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Cincinnati
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $178
Show 22 more outcomesHide 22 outcomes
Dallas1.7%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 58s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Dallas1.7%Kalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Dallas
1.7%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Dallas
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Dallas
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $62
Detroit1.7%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 58s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Detroit1.7%Kalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Detroit
1.7%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Detroit
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Detroit
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $929
Green Bay1.7%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 58s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Green Bay1.7%Kalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Green Bay
1.7%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Green Bay
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Green Bay
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $117
Indianapolis1.7%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 58s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Indianapolis1.7%Kalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Indianapolis
1.7%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Indianapolis
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Indianapolis
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $234
Los Angeles C1.7%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 58s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Los Angeles C1.7%Kalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Los Angeles C
1.7%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Los Angeles C
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Los Angeles C
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $560
Los Angeles R1.7%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 58s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Los Angeles R1.7%Kalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Los Angeles R
1.7%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Los Angeles R
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Los Angeles R
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $1
Miami1.7%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 58s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Miami1.7%Kalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Miami
1.7%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Miami
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Miami
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $235
Seattle1.7%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 58s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Seattle1.7%Kalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Seattle
1.7%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Seattle
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Seattle
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Tampa Bay1.7%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 58s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Tampa Bay1.7%Kalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Tampa Bay
1.7%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Tampa Bay
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tampa Bay
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $322
Cleveland0.9%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 58s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Cleveland0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Cleveland
0.9%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Cleveland
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Cleveland
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Denver0.9%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 58s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Denver0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Denver
0.9%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Denver
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Denver
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Houston0.9%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 58s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Houston0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Houston
0.9%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Houston
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Houston
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Jacksonville0.9%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 58s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Jacksonville0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Jacksonville
0.9%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Jacksonville
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jacksonville
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Kansas City0.9%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 58s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Kansas City0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kansas City
0.9%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kansas City
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kansas City
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Las Vegas0.9%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 58s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Las Vegas0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Las Vegas
0.9%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Las Vegas
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Las Vegas
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Minnesota0.9%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 58s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Minnesota0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Minnesota
0.9%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Minnesota
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Minnesota
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
New York J0.9%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 58s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)New York J0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
New York J
0.9%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
New York J
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- New York J
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Philadelphia0.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 58s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Philadelphia0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Philadelphia
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Philadelphia
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Philadelphia
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $607
Pittsburgh0.9%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 58s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Pittsburgh0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Pittsburgh
0.9%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Pittsburgh
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Pittsburgh
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
San Francisco0.9%1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 58s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)San Francisco0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
San Francisco
0.9%
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
San Francisco
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- San Francisco
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Tennessee0.9%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 58s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Tennessee0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Tennessee
0.9%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Tennessee
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tennessee
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Washington0.8%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 58s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Washington0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Washington
0.8%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Washington
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Washington
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Stays with New York G or Retires
- New Orleans
- New England
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Kayvon Thibodeaux's Next Team". Stays with New York G or Retires leads at 50%. Next is New Orleans at 8.6%. $28K has traded across 32 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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