The Prediction Markets

Keir Starmer Out?

Closed
May 1, 2026
Traded
$2.6M
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on May 1, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 126 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Before Dec 1, 2026
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 3034 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Dec 1, 2026
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$516
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Sep 1, 2026
90.4%
Kalshi 90.4%polled, 3034 h agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Sep 1, 2026
Last price
90.4%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
90.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$325K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Oct 1, 2026
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 3034 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Oct 1, 2026
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$842
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Aug 1, 2026
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 3034 h agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Aug 1, 2026
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$116K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Nov 1, 2026
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 3034 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 1, 2026
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jul 1, 2026
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 3034 h agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jul 1, 2026
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$1.2M
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Prime Minister's Office, The New York Times, the Associated Press

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before Dec 1, 2026
  • Before Sep 1, 2026
  • Before Oct 1, 2026

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Keir Starmer Out?". Before Dec 1, 2026 last traded at 93%. Next is Before Sep 1, 2026 at 90.4%. $2.6M has traded across 6 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Sep 1, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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