The Prediction Markets

Kentucky aging Bourbon-barrel inventory as of January 1, 2026

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$67K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 15.5 million barrels 97%

Next is Above 16.0 million barrels at 89%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 15.5 million barrels
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15.5 million barrels
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 16.0 million barrels
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 16.0 million barrels
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 16.5 million barrels
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 16.5 million barrels
Last price
77%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 17.0 million barrels
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 17.0 million barrels
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 17.5 million barrels
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 17.5 million barrels
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 18.0 million barrels
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 18.0 million barrels
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Kentucky Distillers’ Association

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 15.5 million barrels
  • Above 16.0 million barrels
  • Above 16.5 million barrels

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Kentucky aging Bourbon-barrel inventory as of January 1, 2026". Above 15.5 million barrels leads at 97%. Next is Above 16.0 million barrels at 89%. $67K has traded across 6 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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