Combined depth · both venues
Loading both order books…
What the markets expect
Jon Ossoff 25.2%
Next is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 11.5%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Jon OssoffArb25.2%23.5%13.1% fair3¢ bid, 44¢ askpolled, 35s ago26.5%24.6% fair24¢ bid, 29¢ askpolled, 1 min ago29¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $345 (3.45x)Jon OssoffArb25.2%Polymarket 35%(13.1% fair)polled, 35s agoPolymarket 23.5%(13.1% fair)polled, 35s agoKalshi 26.5%(24.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Jon OssoffArb
25.2%
23.5%
13.1% fair
3¢ bid, 44¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
26.5%
24.6% fair
24¢ bid, 29¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
29¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Jon OssoffArb
25.2%
Polymarket 35%(13.1% fair)polled, 35s agoPolymarket 23.5%(13.1% fair)polled, 35s agoKalshi 26.5%(24.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jon Ossoff
- Last price
- 35%
- Fair, margin removed
- 13.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 36¢
- Sell Yes
- 34¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $278 (2.78x)
- Volume
- $6K
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jon Ossoff
- Last price
- 23.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 13.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 44¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $227 (2.27x)
- Volume
- $576
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jon Ossoff
- Last price
- 26.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 24.6%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 29¢
- Sell Yes
- 24¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $345 (3.45x)
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 29¢ and selling on Polymarket at 34¢ nets 500 bps before fees.
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezArb11.5%19%1.5% fair18¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, 35s ago13.5%12.6% fair12¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 1 min ago7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Alexandria Ocasio-CortezArb11.5%Polymarket 4.1%(1.5% fair)polled, 35s agoPolymarket 19%(1.5% fair)polled, 35s agoKalshi 13.5%(12.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezArb
11.5%
19%
1.5% fair
18¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
13.5%
12.6% fair
12¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezArb
11.5%
Polymarket 4.1%(1.5% fair)polled, 35s agoPolymarket 19%(1.5% fair)polled, 35s agoKalshi 13.5%(12.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
- Last price
- 4.1%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $613
Polymarket
- Contract
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
- Last price
- 19%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 18¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
- Volume
- $145
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
- Last price
- 13.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 12.6%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Polymarket at 7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 12¢ nets 500 bps before fees.
Pete ButtigiegArb10.2%36%0.8% fair8¢ bid, 64¢ askpolled, 35s ago5%4¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 1 min ago3.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)Pete ButtigiegArb10.2%Polymarket 2.1%(0.8% fair)polled, 35s agoPolymarket 36%(0.8% fair)polled, 35s agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Pete ButtigiegArb
10.2%
36%
0.8% fair
8¢ bid, 64¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
5%
4¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
3.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Pete ButtigiegArb
10.2%
Polymarket 2.1%(0.8% fair)polled, 35s agoPolymarket 36%(0.8% fair)polled, 35s agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Pete Buttigieg
- Last price
- 2.1%
- Fair, margin removed
- 0.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,703 (27.0x)
- Volume
- $440
Polymarket
- Contract
- Pete Buttigieg
- Last price
- 36%
- Fair, margin removed
- 0.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 64¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $156 (1.56x)
- Volume
- $232
Kalshi
- Contract
- Pete Buttigieg
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 6¢ and selling on Polymarket at 8¢ nets 200 bps before fees.
Andy BeshearArb8.9%8%7¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 35s ago10%9.3% fair9.1¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 1 min ago0.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $14,286 (143x)Andy BeshearArb8.9%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 35s agoPolymarket 8%polled, 35s agoKalshi 10%(9.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Andy BeshearArb
8.9%
8%
7¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
10%
9.3% fair
9.1¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
0.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Andy BeshearArb
8.9%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 35s agoPolymarket 8%polled, 35s agoKalshi 10%(9.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Andy Beshear
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $14,286 (143x)
- Volume
- $420
Polymarket
- Contract
- Andy Beshear
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $158
Kalshi
- Contract
- Andy Beshear
- Last price
- 10%
- Fair, margin removed
- 9.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 9.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $4K
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Polymarket at 0.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 9.1¢ nets 840 bps before fees.
Gavin NewsomArb7.9%2.9%1.9% fair0.4¢ bid, 5.4¢ askpolled, 35s ago12.5%11.6% fair11¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)Gavin NewsomArb7.9%Polymarket 5.1%(1.9% fair)polled, 35s agoPolymarket 2.9%(1.9% fair)polled, 35s agoKalshi 12.5%(11.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Gavin NewsomArb
7.9%
2.9%
1.9% fair
0.4¢ bid, 5.4¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
12.5%
11.6% fair
11¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Gavin NewsomArb
7.9%
Polymarket 5.1%(1.9% fair)polled, 35s agoPolymarket 2.9%(1.9% fair)polled, 35s agoKalshi 12.5%(11.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gavin Newsom
- Last price
- 5.1%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,408 (14.1x)
- Volume
- $6K
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gavin Newsom
- Last price
- 2.9%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,852 (18.5x)
- Volume
- $87
Kalshi
- Contract
- Gavin Newsom
- Last price
- 12.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 11.6%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Polymarket at 5.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 11¢ nets 560 bps before fees.
Raphael WarnockArb5.7%3.5%6% fair0.4¢ bid, 6.6¢ askpolled, 35s ago3.5%3¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 1 min ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Raphael WarnockArb5.7%Polymarket 16%(6% fair)polled, 35s agoPolymarket 3.5%(6% fair)polled, 35s agoKalshi 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Raphael WarnockArb
5.7%
3.5%
6% fair
0.4¢ bid, 6.6¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
3.5%
3¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Raphael WarnockArb
5.7%
Polymarket 16%(6% fair)polled, 35s agoPolymarket 3.5%(6% fair)polled, 35s agoKalshi 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Raphael Warnock
- Last price
- 16%
- Fair, margin removed
- 6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
- Volume
- $7K
Polymarket
- Contract
- Raphael Warnock
- Last price
- 3.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,515 (15.2x)
- Volume
- $74
Kalshi
- Contract
- Raphael Warnock
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 15¢ nets 1100 bps before fees.
Kamala HarrisArb5.1%1.7%4.5% fair0.4¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, 35s ago4.5%4¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Kamala HarrisArb5.1%Polymarket 12%(4.5% fair)polled, 35s agoPolymarket 1.7%(4.5% fair)polled, 35s agoKalshi 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kamala HarrisArb
5.1%
1.7%
4.5% fair
0.4¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
4.5%
4¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kamala HarrisArb
5.1%
Polymarket 12%(4.5% fair)polled, 35s agoPolymarket 1.7%(4.5% fair)polled, 35s agoKalshi 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Kamala Harris
- Last price
- 12%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $11K
Polymarket
- Contract
- Kamala Harris
- Last price
- 1.7%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $71
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kamala Harris
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 5¢ and selling on Polymarket at 11¢ nets 600 bps before fees.
Stephen A. Smith4.5%24.5%1¢ bid, 48¢ askpolled, 35s agoNot listed0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Stephen A. Smith4.5%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 35s agoPolymarket 24.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Stephen A. Smith
4.5%
24.5%
1¢ bid, 48¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
Not listed
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Stephen A. Smith
4.5%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 35s agoPolymarket 24.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Stephen A. Smith
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $503
Polymarket
- Contract
- Stephen A. Smith
- Last price
- 24.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
- Volume
- $209
Josh ShapiroArb3.2%4.5%1¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 35s ago4.5%4¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Josh ShapiroArb3.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 35s agoPolymarket 4.5%polled, 35s agoKalshi 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Josh ShapiroArb
3.2%
4.5%
1¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
4.5%
4¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Josh ShapiroArb
3.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 35s agoPolymarket 4.5%polled, 35s agoKalshi 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Josh Shapiro
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $440
Polymarket
- Contract
- Josh Shapiro
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $670
Kalshi
- Contract
- Josh Shapiro
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 4¢ nets 380 bps before fees.
Bernie Sanders3%18.4%0.3¢ bid, 36.5¢ askpolled, 35s agoNot listed0.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $16,667 (167x)Bernie Sanders3%Polymarket 0.4%polled, 35s agoPolymarket 18.4%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Bernie Sanders
3%
18.4%
0.3¢ bid, 36.5¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
Not listed
0.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Bernie Sanders
3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 35s agoPolymarket 18.4%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Bernie Sanders
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $16,667 (167x)
- Volume
- $487
Polymarket
- Contract
- Bernie Sanders
- Last price
- 18.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 36.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $274 (2.74x)
- Volume
- $85
Show 11 more outcomesHide 11 outcomes
Abdul El-Sayed2.3%Not listed1.5%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 1 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Abdul El-Sayed2.3%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Abdul El-Sayed
2.3%
Not listed
1.5%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Abdul El-Sayed
2.3%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Abdul El-Sayed
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Wes Moore2.2%3.2%1.5% fair0.4¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 35s ago1.5%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 1 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Wes Moore2.2%Polymarket 4.1%(1.5% fair)polled, 35s agoPolymarket 3.2%(1.5% fair)polled, 35s agoKalshi 1.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Wes Moore
2.2%
3.2%
1.5% fair
0.4¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
1.5%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Wes Moore
2.2%
Polymarket 4.1%(1.5% fair)polled, 35s agoPolymarket 3.2%(1.5% fair)polled, 35s agoKalshi 1.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Wes Moore
- Last price
- 4.1%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $611
Polymarket
- Contract
- Wes Moore
- Last price
- 3.2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $85
Kalshi
- Contract
- Wes Moore
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.
Mark Kelly1.9%2.8%0.9% fair0.3¢ bid, 5.3¢ askpolled, 35s ago1.8%1.5¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 1 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Mark Kelly1.9%Polymarket 2.5%(0.9% fair)polled, 35s agoPolymarket 2.8%(0.9% fair)polled, 35s agoKalshi 1.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Mark Kelly
1.9%
2.8%
0.9% fair
0.3¢ bid, 5.3¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
1.8%
1.5¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Mark Kelly
1.9%
Polymarket 2.5%(0.9% fair)polled, 35s agoPolymarket 2.8%(0.9% fair)polled, 35s agoKalshi 1.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Mark Kelly
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 0.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,273 (22.7x)
- Volume
- $947
Polymarket
- Contract
- Mark Kelly
- Last price
- 2.8%
- Fair, margin removed
- 0.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,887 (18.9x)
- Volume
- $59
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mark Kelly
- Last price
- 1.8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.
James TalaricoArb1.7%4.1%0.3¢ bid, 7.9¢ askpolled, 35s ago1.5%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 1 min ago0.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $20,000 (200x)James TalaricoArb1.7%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 35s agoPolymarket 4.1%polled, 35s agoKalshi 1.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
James TalaricoArb
1.7%
4.1%
0.3¢ bid, 7.9¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
1.5%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
0.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $20,000 (200x)
James TalaricoArb
1.7%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 35s agoPolymarket 4.1%polled, 35s agoKalshi 1.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- James Talarico
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $20,000 (200x)
- Volume
- $408
Polymarket
- Contract
- James Talarico
- Last price
- 4.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,266 (12.7x)
- Volume
- $71
Kalshi
- Contract
- James Talarico
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Polymarket at 0.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 50 bps before fees.
Cory Booker1.6%2.9%1% fair0.5¢ bid, 5.2¢ askpolled, 35s agoNot listed4.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)Cory Booker1.6%Polymarket 2.6%(1% fair)polled, 35s agoPolymarket 2.9%(1% fair)polled, 35s agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Cory Booker
1.6%
2.9%
1% fair
0.5¢ bid, 5.2¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
Not listed
4.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Cory Booker
1.6%
Polymarket 2.6%(1% fair)polled, 35s agoPolymarket 2.9%(1% fair)polled, 35s agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Cory Booker
- Last price
- 2.6%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,381 (23.8x)
- Volume
- $1K
Polymarket
- Contract
- Cory Booker
- Last price
- 2.9%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,923 (19.2x)
- Volume
- $91
J.B. Pritzker1.4%3.2%0.7% fair1.3¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 35s agoNot listed3.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)J.B. Pritzker1.4%Polymarket 2%(0.7% fair)polled, 35s agoPolymarket 3.2%(0.7% fair)polled, 35s agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
J.B. Pritzker
1.4%
3.2%
0.7% fair
1.3¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
Not listed
3.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
J.B. Pritzker
1.4%
Polymarket 2%(0.7% fair)polled, 35s agoPolymarket 3.2%(0.7% fair)polled, 35s agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- J.B. Pritzker
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 0.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,857 (28.6x)
- Volume
- $691
Polymarket
- Contract
- J.B. Pritzker
- Last price
- 3.2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 0.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $325
Michelle Obama1%5.2%0.3¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 35s agoNot listed0.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $11,111 (111x)Michelle Obama1%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 35s agoPolymarket 5.2%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Michelle Obama
1%
5.2%
0.3¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
Not listed
0.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Michelle Obama
1%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 35s agoPolymarket 5.2%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Michelle Obama
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $655
Polymarket
- Contract
- Michelle Obama
- Last price
- 5.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $124
Jon Stewart0.9%4%0.2¢ bid, 7.8¢ askpolled, 35s agoNot listed1.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)Jon Stewart0.9%Polymarket 0.7%polled, 35s agoPolymarket 4%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Jon Stewart
0.9%
4%
0.2¢ bid, 7.8¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
Not listed
1.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Jon Stewart
0.9%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 35s agoPolymarket 4%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jon Stewart
- Last price
- 0.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $9,091 (90.9x)
- Volume
- $1K
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jon Stewart
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,282 (12.8x)
- Volume
- $74
Ro Khanna0.7%3.2%0.3¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 35s agoNot listed0.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $11,111 (111x)Ro Khanna0.7%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 35s agoPolymarket 3.2%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Ro Khanna
0.7%
3.2%
0.3¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
Not listed
0.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Ro Khanna
0.7%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 35s agoPolymarket 3.2%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ro Khanna
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $399
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ro Khanna
- Last price
- 3.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $80
Rahm Emanuel0.6%2.9%0.5¢ bid, 5.3¢ askpolled, 35s agoNot listed0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Rahm Emanuel0.6%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 35s agoPolymarket 2.9%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Rahm Emanuel
0.6%
2.9%
0.5¢ bid, 5.3¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
Not listed
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Rahm Emanuel
0.6%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 35s agoPolymarket 2.9%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Rahm Emanuel
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $490
Polymarket
- Contract
- Rahm Emanuel
- Last price
- 2.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,887 (18.9x)
- Volume
- $87
Roy Cooper0.5%2.1%0.2¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 35s agoNot listed0.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $16,667 (167x)Roy Cooper0.5%Polymarket 0.4%polled, 35s agoPolymarket 2.1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Roy Cooper
0.5%
2.1%
0.2¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
Not listed
0.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Roy Cooper
0.5%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 35s agoPolymarket 2.1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Roy Cooper
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $16,667 (167x)
- Volume
- $353
Polymarket
- Contract
- Roy Cooper
- Last price
- 2.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $70
Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Raphael Warnock on Kalshi at 4¢, sell on Polymarket at 15¢ (1100 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads
Mostly the same bet: one difference
Where they differ
- Trading closes at different times: Jan 23, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Kentucky Secretary of State, Associated Press, Decision Desk HQ
Show full rule comparisonHide full rule comparison
- Trading closes Jan 23, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Jon Ossoff
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
- Pete Buttigieg
Live prices for Jon Ossoff
What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Open on Polymarket ↗Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
Depth · top 8 levels
Loading snapshot…Recent trades
Loading…Kalshi
Open on Kalshi ↗Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
Depth · top 8 levels
Loading snapshot…Recent trades
Loading…What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Kentucky Democratic presidential primary winner?". Jon Ossoff leads at 25.2%. Next is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 11.5%. $48K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2028.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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