The Prediction Markets

Kentucky Governor Republican Primary Winner (2027)

Closes
May 19, 2027, in 7 months
Traded
$5K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

James Comer 82.1%

Next is Thomas Massie at 10.6%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

James Comer 82.1%Thomas Massie 10.6%Savannah Maddox 2.9%Brett St. Amand 1.3%Nate Morris 1.1%3 others 2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
James Comer
82.1%
Polymarket 85.5%(82.1% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Polymarket
Contract
James Comer
Last price
85.5%
Fair, margin removed
82.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Thomas Massie
10.6%
Polymarket 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Thomas Massie
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$351
Trade this on Polymarket
Savannah Maddox
2.9%
Polymarket 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Savannah Maddox
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,754 (17.5x)
Volume
$501
Trade this on Polymarket
Brett St. Amand
1.3%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brett St. Amand
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Polymarket
Nate Morris
1.1%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nate Morris
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$345
Trade this on Polymarket
Daniel Cameron
1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Daniel Cameron
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$254
Trade this on Polymarket
Charles "Bruiser" Martin
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Charles "Bruiser" Martin
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$230
Trade this on Polymarket
Rick Hardin
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rick Hardin
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$210
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • James Comer
  • Thomas Massie
  • Savannah Maddox

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Kentucky Governor Republican Primary Winner (2027)". James Comer leads at 82.1%. Next is Thomas Massie at 10.6%. $5K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by May 19, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican nomination to contest the Kentucky governorship in 2027. The Republican primary is scheduled to take place on May 18, 2027. If no nominee is announced by November 2, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Kentucky Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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