The Prediction Markets

Kentucky Senate margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$16K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Barr, 10+ pts 84.5%

Next is Barr, 12+ pts at 83%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Barr, 10+ pts
84.5%
Kalshi 84.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Barr, 10+ pts
Last price
84.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Barr, 12+ pts
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Barr, 12+ pts
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$181
Trade this on Kalshi
Barr, 14+ pts
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Barr, 14+ pts
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$87
Trade this on Kalshi
Barr, 16+ pts
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Barr, 16+ pts
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$375
Trade this on Kalshi
Barr, 18+ pts
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Barr, 18+ pts
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$413
Trade this on Kalshi
Barr, 20+ pts
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Barr, 20+ pts
Last price
40%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$114
Trade this on Kalshi
Barr, 22+ pts
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Barr, 22+ pts
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$215
Trade this on Kalshi
Barr, 24+ pts
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Barr, 24+ pts
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$45
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-20%
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-10%
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 30.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $329 (3.29x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-10%
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30.4¢
Sell Yes
19.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$329 (3.29x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 12 more outcomes
Republican 10-15%
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 20-25%
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Barr, 26+ pts
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Barr, 26+ pts
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$187
Trade this on Kalshi
Barr, 28+ pts
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Barr, 28+ pts
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Barr, 32+ pts
9.9%
Kalshi 9.9%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Barr, 32+ pts
Last price
9.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi
Barr, 30+ pts
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Barr, 30+ pts
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 25-30%
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$643
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 40-45%
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 40-45%
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
3.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$686
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$382
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 30-35%
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$240
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 35-40%
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35-40%
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$421
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 45%+
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 45%+
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$163
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Barr, 10+ pts
  • Barr, 12+ pts
  • Barr, 14+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Barr, 10+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Kentucky Senate margin of victory". Barr, 10+ pts leads at 84.5%. Next is Barr, 12+ pts at 83%. $16K has traded across 22 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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