The Prediction Markets

Kentucky's 2nd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$30K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Guthrie, 24+ pts 90%

Next is Guthrie, 27+ pts at 78.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Guthrie, 24+ pts
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Guthrie, 24+ pts
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94.8¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Guthrie, 27+ pts
78.5%
Kalshi 78.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Guthrie, 27+ pts
Last price
78.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Guthrie, 30+ pts
65.5%
Kalshi 65.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Guthrie, 30+ pts
Last price
65.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Guthrie, 33+ pts
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Guthrie, 33+ pts
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Guthrie, 36+ pts
33.5%
Kalshi 33.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Guthrie, 36+ pts
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 30-35%
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 40-45%
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 40-45%
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 35-40%
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35-40%
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Guthrie, 39+ pts
19.5%
Kalshi 19.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Guthrie, 39+ pts
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Guthrie, 42+ pts
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Guthrie, 42+ pts
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
Republican 25-30%
14.4%
Polymarket 14.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $613 (6.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
14.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16.3¢
Sell Yes
12.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$613 (6.13x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 50%+
13.7%
Polymarket 13.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $395 (3.95x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 50%+
Last price
13.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25.3¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$395 (3.95x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Guthrie, 45+ pts
9.8%
Kalshi 9.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Guthrie, 45+ pts
Last price
9.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$443
Trade this on Kalshi
Guthrie, 48+ pts
7.3%
Kalshi 7.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Guthrie, 48+ pts
Last price
7.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 45-50%
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 45-50%
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 20-25%
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 10-20%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-20%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-10%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-10%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$779
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$749
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Guthrie, 24+ pts
  • Guthrie, 27+ pts
  • Guthrie, 30+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Guthrie, 24+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Kentucky's 2nd District margin of victory". Guthrie, 24+ pts leads at 90%. Next is Guthrie, 27+ pts at 78.5%. $30K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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