The Prediction Markets

Kentucky's 3rd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$18K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

McGarvey, 17+ pts 92.4%

Next is McGarvey, 20+ pts at 85.8%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
McGarvey, 17+ pts
92.4%
Kalshi 92.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
McGarvey, 17+ pts
Last price
92.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
90.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
McGarvey, 20+ pts
85.8%
Kalshi 85.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 90.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
McGarvey, 20+ pts
Last price
85.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
90.5¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Trade this on Kalshi
McGarvey, 23+ pts
74.5%
Kalshi 74.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
McGarvey, 23+ pts
Last price
74.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
McGarvey, 26+ pts
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
McGarvey, 26+ pts
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
McGarvey, 29+ pts
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
McGarvey, 29+ pts
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$66
Trade this on Kalshi
McGarvey, 32+ pts
42.5%
Kalshi 42.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
McGarvey, 32+ pts
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 30-35%
35.5%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 25-30%
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
McGarvey, 35+ pts
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
McGarvey, 35+ pts
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$61
Trade this on Kalshi
McGarvey, 38+ pts
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
McGarvey, 38+ pts
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
Democrat 35-40%
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35-40%
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-5%
13.3%
Polymarket 13.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $380 (3.80x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
13.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
26.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$380 (3.80x)
Volume
$729
Trade this on Polymarket
McGarvey, 41+ pts
9.9%
Kalshi 9.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
McGarvey, 41+ pts
Last price
9.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
4.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 20-25%
6.1%
Polymarket 6.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$946
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 15-20%
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 40-45%
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 40-45%
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$995
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 45%+
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 45%+
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$577
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 5-15%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-15%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$806
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$503
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Kentucky State Board of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • McGarvey, 17+ pts
  • McGarvey, 20+ pts
  • McGarvey, 23+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list McGarvey, 17+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Kentucky's 3rd District margin of victory". McGarvey, 17+ pts leads at 92.4%. Next is McGarvey, 20+ pts at 85.8%. $18K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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