The Prediction Markets

Kentucky's 4th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$41K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Gallrein, 9+ pts 94.3%

Next is Gallrein, 3+ pts at 93.3%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Gallrein, 9+ pts
94.3%
Kalshi 94.3%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 98.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gallrein, 9+ pts
Last price
94.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.4¢
Sell Yes
90.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Gallrein, 3+ pts
93.3%
Kalshi 93.3%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 98.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gallrein, 3+ pts
Last price
93.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.4¢
Sell Yes
93.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$295
Trade this on Kalshi
Gallrein, 6+ pts
92.9%
Kalshi 92.9%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 98.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gallrein, 6+ pts
Last price
92.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.4¢
Sell Yes
92.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Gallrein, 12+ pts
91.5%
Kalshi 91.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gallrein, 12+ pts
Last price
91.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Gallrein, 15+ pts
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gallrein, 15+ pts
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$62
Trade this on Kalshi
Gallrein, 18+ pts
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gallrein, 18+ pts
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Gallrein, 21+ pts
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gallrein, 21+ pts
Last price
56%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$474
Trade this on Kalshi
Gallrein, 24+ pts
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gallrein, 24+ pts
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$706
Trade this on Kalshi
Gallrein, 27+ pts
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gallrein, 27+ pts
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 20-25%
28.2%
Polymarket 28.2%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 28.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $353 (3.53x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
28.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28.3¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$353 (3.53x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 14 more outcomes
Gallrein, 30+ pts
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gallrein, 30+ pts
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$111
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 25-30%
22.6%
Polymarket 22.6%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 23.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $431 (4.31x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
22.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23.2¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$431 (4.31x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 15-20%
14.8%
Polymarket 14.8%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 27.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $361 (3.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
14.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27.7¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$361 (3.61x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Gallrein, 36+ pts
9.8%
Kalshi 9.8%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gallrein, 36+ pts
Last price
9.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 30-35%
8.9%
Polymarket 8.9%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 11.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $901 (9.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
8.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.1¢
Sell Yes
6.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$901 (9.01x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Gallrein, 42+ pts
6.3%
Kalshi 6.3%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gallrein, 42+ pts
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Gallrein, 33+ pts
5.9%
Kalshi 5.9%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gallrein, 33+ pts
Last price
5.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$186
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 35-40%
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35-40%
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.3¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,205 (12.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Gallrein, 39+ pts
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gallrein, 39+ pts
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-5%
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 5.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.7¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,754 (17.5x)
Volume
$587
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 45%+
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 45%+
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$701
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 5-15%
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-15%
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 40-45%
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 40-45%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$995
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$802
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Gallrein, 9+ pts
  • Gallrein, 3+ pts
  • Gallrein, 6+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Gallrein, 9+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Kentucky's 4th District margin of victory". Gallrein, 9+ pts leads at 94.3%. Next is Gallrein, 3+ pts at 93.3%. $41K has traded across 24 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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