The Prediction Markets

Kentucky's 5th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$20K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Rogers, 42+ pts 89%

Next is Rogers, 45+ pts at 80.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Rogers, 42+ pts
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 92.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rogers, 42+ pts
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
92.4¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rogers, 45+ pts
80.5%
Kalshi 80.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rogers, 45+ pts
Last price
80.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Rogers, 48+ pts
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rogers, 48+ pts
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Rogers, 51+ pts
50.5%
Kalshi 50.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rogers, 51+ pts
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Rogers, 54+ pts
31.5%
Kalshi 31.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rogers, 54+ pts
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 50-55%
30.1%
Polymarket 30.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $327 (3.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 50-55%
Last price
30.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30.6¢
Sell Yes
29.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$327 (3.27x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 55-60%
25.5%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 55-60%
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 45-50%
24%
Polymarket 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $391 (3.91x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 45-50%
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25.6¢
Sell Yes
22.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$391 (3.91x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rogers, 57+ pts
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rogers, 57+ pts
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 60-65%
8.7%
Polymarket 8.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $592 (5.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 60-65%
Last price
8.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$592 (5.92x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Rogers, 63+ pts
7.6%
Kalshi 7.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rogers, 63+ pts
Last price
7.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$674
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 40-45%
6.4%
Polymarket 6.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 40-45%
Last price
6.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$808
Trade this on Polymarket
Rogers, 66+ pts
6.2%
Kalshi 6.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rogers, 66+ pts
Last price
6.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$436
Trade this on Kalshi
Rogers, 60+ pts
5.6%
Kalshi 5.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rogers, 60+ pts
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 65-70%
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 65-70%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.2¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,087 (10.9x)
Volume
$785
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 30-40%
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-40%
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-30%
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-30%
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$689
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 70%+
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 70%+
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$564
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Rogers, 42+ pts
  • Rogers, 45+ pts
  • Rogers, 48+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Rogers, 42+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Kentucky's 5th District margin of victory". Rogers, 42+ pts leads at 89%. Next is Rogers, 45+ pts at 80.5%. $20K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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