Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
Alvarado, 1+ pts 51%
Next is Alvarado, 3+ pts at 34%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 6 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Alvarado, 1+ pts51%Not listed51%45¢ bid, 57¢ askpolled, 1 min ago57¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $175 (1.75x)Alvarado, 1+ pts51%Kalshi 51%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Alvarado, 1+ pts
51%
Not listed
51%
45¢ bid, 57¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
57¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Alvarado, 1+ pts
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alvarado, 1+ pts
- Last price
- 51%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 57¢
- Sell Yes
- 45¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $175 (1.75x)
Alvarado, 3+ pts34%Not listed34%33¢ bid, 43¢ askpolled, 1 min ago43¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $233 (2.33x)Alvarado, 3+ pts34%Kalshi 34%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Alvarado, 3+ pts
34%
Not listed
34%
33¢ bid, 43¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
43¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Alvarado, 3+ pts
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alvarado, 3+ pts
- Last price
- 34%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 43¢
- Sell Yes
- 33¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $233 (2.33x)
- Volume
- $2K
Dembo, 3+ pts26%Not listed26%20¢ bid, 31¢ askpolled, 6 min ago31¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $323 (3.23x)Dembo, 3+ pts26%Kalshi 26%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Dembo, 3+ pts
26%
Not listed
26%
20¢ bid, 31¢ ask
polled, 6 min ago
31¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Dembo, 3+ pts
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Dembo, 3+ pts
- Last price
- 26%
- As of
- Polled 6 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- 20¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
- Volume
- $6K
Republican 0-3%19%19%18¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed20¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $500 (5.00x)Republican 0-3%19%Polymarket 19%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Republican 0-3%
19%
19%
18¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
20¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Republican 0-3%
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 0-3%
- Last price
- 19%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 18¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
- Volume
- $5K
Alvarado, 6+ pts18%Not listed18%17¢ bid, 29¢ askpolled, 1 min ago29¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $345 (3.45x)Alvarado, 6+ pts18%Kalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Alvarado, 6+ pts
18%
Not listed
18%
17¢ bid, 29¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
29¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Alvarado, 6+ pts
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alvarado, 6+ pts
- Last price
- 18%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 29¢
- Sell Yes
- 17¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $345 (3.45x)
- Volume
- $756
Republican 0-3%Polymarket: “Democrat 0-3%”18%18%17.5¢ bid, 18.5¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed18.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $541 (5.41x)Republican 0-3%18%Polymarket 18%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 18.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $541 (5.41x)
Republican 0-3%
Polymarket: “Democrat 0-3%”
18%
18%
17.5¢ bid, 18.5¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
18.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $541 (5.41x)
Republican 0-3%
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 18.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $541 (5.41x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 0-3%
- Last price
- 18%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 18.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 17.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $541 (5.41x)
- Volume
- $3K
Alvarado, 9+ pts16%Not listed16%5.5¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 1 min ago16¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $625 (6.25x)Alvarado, 9+ pts16%Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Alvarado, 9+ pts
16%
Not listed
16%
5.5¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
16¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Alvarado, 9+ pts
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alvarado, 9+ pts
- Last price
- 16%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 5.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $212
Republican 6-9%15.7%15.7%10.3¢ bid, 21.1¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed21.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $474 (4.74x)Republican 6-9%15.7%Polymarket 15.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 21.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $474 (4.74x)
Republican 6-9%
15.7%
15.7%
10.3¢ bid, 21.1¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
21.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $474 (4.74x)
Republican 6-9%
15.7%
Polymarket 15.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 21.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $474 (4.74x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 6-9%
- Last price
- 15.7%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 21.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 10.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $474 (4.74x)
- Volume
- $2K
Republican 3-6%15%15%14¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed16¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $625 (6.25x)Republican 3-6%15%Polymarket 15%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Republican 3-6%
15%
15%
14¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
16¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Republican 3-6%
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 3-6%
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $2K
Republican 12-15%12.7%12.7%0.9¢ bid, 24.5¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed24.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $408 (4.08x)Republican 12-15%12.7%Polymarket 12.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 24.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $408 (4.08x)
Republican 12-15%
12.7%
12.7%
0.9¢ bid, 24.5¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
24.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $408 (4.08x)
Republican 12-15%
12.7%
Polymarket 12.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 24.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $408 (4.08x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 12-15%
- Last price
- 12.7%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 24.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $408 (4.08x)
- Volume
- $561
Show 9 more outcomesHide 9 outcomes
Republican 3-6%Polymarket: “Democrat 3-6%”11.3%11.3%8.6¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed14¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $714 (7.14x)Republican 3-6%11.3%Polymarket 11.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Republican 3-6%
Polymarket: “Democrat 3-6%”
11.3%
11.3%
8.6¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
14¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Republican 3-6%
11.3%
Polymarket 11.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 3-6%
- Last price
- 11.3%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 8.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
- Volume
- $1K
Alvarado, 12+ pts9.9%Not listed9.9%4¢ bid, 9.9¢ askpolled, 1 min ago9.9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)Alvarado, 12+ pts9.9%Kalshi 9.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Alvarado, 12+ pts
9.9%
Not listed
9.9%
4¢ bid, 9.9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
9.9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Alvarado, 12+ pts
9.9%
Kalshi 9.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alvarado, 12+ pts
- Last price
- 9.9%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,010 (10.1x)
- Volume
- $567
Democrat 6%+6.5%6.5%1.2¢ bid, 11.7¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed11.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $855 (8.55x)Democrat 6%+6.5%Polymarket 6.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 11.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $855 (8.55x)
Democrat 6%+
6.5%
6.5%
1.2¢ bid, 11.7¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
11.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $855 (8.55x)
Democrat 6%+
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 11.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $855 (8.55x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 6%+
- Last price
- 6.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 11.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $855 (8.55x)
- Volume
- $2K
Alvarado, 15+ pts6%Not listed6%3¢ bid, 7.6¢ askpolled, 1 min ago7.6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)Alvarado, 15+ pts6%Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Alvarado, 15+ pts
6%
Not listed
6%
3¢ bid, 7.6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
7.6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Alvarado, 15+ pts
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alvarado, 15+ pts
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,316 (13.2x)
- Volume
- $50
Alvarado, 21+ pts6%Not listed6%0.2¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 1 min ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Alvarado, 21+ pts6%Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Alvarado, 21+ pts
6%
Not listed
6%
0.2¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Alvarado, 21+ pts
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alvarado, 21+ pts
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $1
Republican 9-12%5.7%5.7%5.5¢ bid, 5.9¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed5.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)Republican 9-12%5.7%Polymarket 5.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Republican 9-12%
5.7%
5.7%
5.5¢ bid, 5.9¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
5.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Republican 9-12%
5.7%
Polymarket 5.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 9-12%
- Last price
- 5.7%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 5.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,695 (16.9x)
- Volume
- $560
Alvarado, 18+ pts5.3%Not listed5.3%— bid, 6.3¢ askpolled, 1 min ago6.3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)Alvarado, 18+ pts5.3%Kalshi 5.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Alvarado, 18+ pts
5.3%
Not listed
5.3%
— bid, 6.3¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
6.3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Alvarado, 18+ pts
5.3%
Kalshi 5.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alvarado, 18+ pts
- Last price
- 5.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,587 (15.9x)
- Volume
- $201
Republican 18%+3.1%3.1%0.5¢ bid, 5.7¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed5.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)Republican 18%+3.1%Polymarket 3.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
Republican 18%+
3.1%
3.1%
0.5¢ bid, 5.7¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
5.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
Republican 18%+
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 18%+
- Last price
- 3.1%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,754 (17.5x)
- Volume
- $691
Republican 15-18%1.5%1.5%0.5¢ bid, 2.5¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed2.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)Republican 15-18%1.5%Polymarket 1.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Republican 15-18%
1.5%
1.5%
0.5¢ bid, 2.5¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
2.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Republican 15-18%
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 15-18%
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,000 (40.0x)
- Volume
- $756
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Kentucky State Board of Elections, official election authority responsible for certifying results in
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Alvarado, 1+ pts
- Alvarado, 3+ pts
- Dembo, 3+ pts
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list Alvarado, 1+ pts for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Kentucky's 6th District margin of victory". Alvarado, 1+ pts leads at 51%. Next is Alvarado, 3+ pts at 34%. $27K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
More other markets
See all other markets- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?December 318.5%$76.5M traded
- Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?Yes1.4%$66.6M traded
- Which party will win the U.S. House?Democratic Party91.5%$66.3M traded
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?Nithya Raman52%$42.5M traded
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?October 2492%$38.5M traded
- Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Before Jan 20, 202923%$36.9M traded