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What the markets expect
O/U 0.5 Rounds 83%
Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 57%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
O/U 0.5 Rounds83%83%78¢ bid, 88¢ askpolled, 1 h agoNot listed88¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $114 (1.14x)O/U 0.5 Rounds83%Polymarket 83%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
O/U 0.5 Rounds
83%
83%
78¢ bid, 88¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
Not listed
88¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $114 (1.14x)
O/U 0.5 Rounds
83%
Polymarket 83%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 0.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 83%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 88¢
- Sell Yes
- 78¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $114 (1.14x)
O/U 1.5 Rounds57%57%53¢ bid, 61¢ askpolled, 1 h agoNot listed61¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $164 (1.64x)O/U 1.5 Rounds57%Polymarket 57%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 61¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
O/U 1.5 Rounds
57%
57%
53¢ bid, 61¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
Not listed
61¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $164 (1.64x)
O/U 1.5 Rounds
57%
Polymarket 57%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 61¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 1.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 57%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 61¢
- Sell Yes
- 53¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $164 (1.64x)
Ends before Round 3?56.5%56.5%54¢ bid, 59¢ askpolled, 1 h agoNot listed59¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $169 (1.69x)Ends before Round 3?56.5%Polymarket 56.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Ends before Round 3?
56.5%
56.5%
54¢ bid, 59¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
Not listed
59¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Ends before Round 3?
56.5%
Polymarket 56.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ends before Round 3?
- Last price
- 56.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 59¢
- Sell Yes
- 54¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $169 (1.69x)
Noah Gugnon vs. Kody Steele42.5%42.5%42¢ bid, 43¢ askpolled, 1 h agoNot listed43¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $233 (2.33x)Noah Gugnon vs. Kody Steele42.5%Polymarket 42.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Noah Gugnon vs. Kody Steele
42.5%
42.5%
42¢ bid, 43¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
Not listed
43¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Noah Gugnon vs. Kody Steele
42.5%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Noah Gugnon vs. Kody Steele
- Last price
- 42.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 43¢
- Sell Yes
- 42¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $233 (2.33x)
- Volume
- $7K
O/U 2.5 Rounds40.5%40.5%39¢ bid, 42¢ askpolled, 1 h agoNot listed42¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $238 (2.38x)O/U 2.5 Rounds40.5%Polymarket 40.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
O/U 2.5 Rounds
40.5%
40.5%
39¢ bid, 42¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
Not listed
42¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $238 (2.38x)
O/U 2.5 Rounds
40.5%
Polymarket 40.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 2.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 40.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 42¢
- Sell Yes
- 39¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $238 (2.38x)
Fight won by KO/TKO?35.5%35.5%32¢ bid, 39¢ askpolled, 1 h agoNot listed39¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $256 (2.56x)Fight won by KO/TKO?35.5%Polymarket 35.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Fight won by KO/TKO?
35.5%
35.5%
32¢ bid, 39¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
Not listed
39¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Fight won by KO/TKO?
35.5%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 35.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 39¢
- Sell Yes
- 32¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $256 (2.56x)
- Volume
- $13
Decision or Draw34.5%34.5%30¢ bid, 39¢ askpolled, 1 h agoNot listed39¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $256 (2.56x)Decision or Draw34.5%Polymarket 34.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Decision or Draw
34.5%
34.5%
30¢ bid, 39¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
Not listed
39¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Decision or Draw
34.5%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Decision or Draw
- Last price
- 34.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 39¢
- Sell Yes
- 30¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $256 (2.56x)
Fight won by decision?34.5%34.5%30¢ bid, 39¢ askpolled, 1 h agoNot listed39¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $256 (2.56x)Fight won by decision?34.5%Polymarket 34.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Fight won by decision?
34.5%
34.5%
30¢ bid, 39¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
Not listed
39¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Fight won by decision?
34.5%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by decision?
- Last price
- 34.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 39¢
- Sell Yes
- 30¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $256 (2.56x)
Fight goes the distancePolymarket: “Fight to Go the Distance?”34%34%33¢ bid, 35¢ askpolled, 1 h agoNot listed35¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $286 (2.86x)Fight goes the distance34%Polymarket 34%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Fight goes the distance
Polymarket: “Fight to Go the Distance?”
34%
34%
33¢ bid, 35¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
Not listed
35¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Fight goes the distance
34%
Polymarket 34%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight to Go the Distance?
- Last price
- 34%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 35¢
- Sell Yes
- 33¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $286 (2.86x)
- Volume
- $516
Fight goes the distance34%Not listed34%32¢ bid, 34¢ askpolled, 1 h ago34¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $294 (2.94x)Fight goes the distance34%Kalshi 34%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Fight goes the distance
34%
Not listed
34%
32¢ bid, 34¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
34¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Fight goes the distance
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Fight goes the distance
- Last price
- 34%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 34¢
- Sell Yes
- 32¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $294 (2.94x)
- Volume
- $2K
Show 10 more outcomesHide 10 outcomes
Fight won by submission?32.5%32.5%29¢ bid, 36¢ askpolled, 1 h agoNot listed36¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $278 (2.78x)Fight won by submission?32.5%Polymarket 32.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Fight won by submission?
32.5%
32.5%
29¢ bid, 36¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
Not listed
36¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Fight won by submission?
32.5%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by submission?
- Last price
- 32.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 36¢
- Sell Yes
- 29¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $278 (2.78x)
Ends before Round 2?31%31%28¢ bid, 34¢ askpolled, 1 h agoNot listed34¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $294 (2.94x)Ends before Round 2?31%Polymarket 31%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Ends before Round 2?
31%
31%
28¢ bid, 34¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
Not listed
34¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Ends before Round 2?
31%
Polymarket 31%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ends before Round 2?
- Last price
- 31%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 34¢
- Sell Yes
- 28¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $294 (2.94x)
- Volume
- $17
Steele in Round 119.5%19.5%15¢ bid, 24¢ askpolled, 1 h agoNot listed24¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $417 (4.17x)Steele in Round 119.5%Polymarket 19.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Steele in Round 1
19.5%
19.5%
15¢ bid, 24¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
Not listed
24¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Steele in Round 1
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Steele in Round 1
- Last price
- 19.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 24¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $417 (4.17x)
Steele to win by KO/TKO?19%19%16¢ bid, 22¢ askpolled, 1 h agoNot listed22¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $455 (4.55x)Steele to win by KO/TKO?19%Polymarket 19%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Steele to win by KO/TKO?
19%
19%
16¢ bid, 22¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
Not listed
22¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Steele to win by KO/TKO?
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Steele to win by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 19%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 22¢
- Sell Yes
- 16¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $455 (4.55x)
Gugnon to win by KO/TKO?17%17%13¢ bid, 21¢ askpolled, 1 h agoNot listed21¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $476 (4.76x)Gugnon to win by KO/TKO?17%Polymarket 17%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Gugnon to win by KO/TKO?
17%
17%
13¢ bid, 21¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
Not listed
21¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Gugnon to win by KO/TKO?
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gugnon to win by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 17%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 21¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $476 (4.76x)
Steele in Round 215.5%15.5%11¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, 1 h agoNot listed20¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $500 (5.00x)Steele in Round 215.5%Polymarket 15.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Steele in Round 2
15.5%
15.5%
11¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
Not listed
20¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Steele in Round 2
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Steele in Round 2
- Last price
- 15.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
Gugnon in Round 111.5%11.5%7¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 1 h agoNot listed16¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $625 (6.25x)Gugnon in Round 111.5%Polymarket 11.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Gugnon in Round 1
11.5%
11.5%
7¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
Not listed
16¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Gugnon in Round 1
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gugnon in Round 1
- Last price
- 11.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
Gugnon in Round 29.5%9.5%5¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, 1 h agoNot listed14¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $714 (7.14x)Gugnon in Round 29.5%Polymarket 9.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Gugnon in Round 2
9.5%
9.5%
5¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
Not listed
14¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Gugnon in Round 2
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gugnon in Round 2
- Last price
- 9.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
Steele in Round 36%6%2¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 1 h agoNot listed10¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Steele in Round 36%Polymarket 6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Steele in Round 3
6%
6%
2¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
Not listed
10¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Steele in Round 3
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Steele in Round 3
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
Gugnon in Round 34.5%4.5%1¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 1 h agoNot listed8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Gugnon in Round 34.5%Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Gugnon in Round 3
4.5%
4.5%
1¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
Not listed
8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Gugnon in Round 3
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gugnon in Round 3
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Fox Sports, DAZN
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- O/U 0.5 Rounds
- O/U 1.5 Rounds
- Ends before Round 3?
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list O/U 0.5 Rounds for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Kody Steele vs Noah Gugnon: Go the Distance". O/U 0.5 Rounds leads at 83%. Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 57%. $10K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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