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What the markets expect
O/U 0.5 Rounds 62.5%
Next is Ends before Round 3? at 55%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
O/U 0.5 Rounds62.5%62.5%35¢ bid, 90¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed90¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $111 (1.11x)O/U 0.5 Rounds62.5%Polymarket 62.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
O/U 0.5 Rounds
62.5%
62.5%
35¢ bid, 90¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
90¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $111 (1.11x)
O/U 0.5 Rounds
62.5%
Polymarket 62.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 0.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 62.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 90¢
- Sell Yes
- 35¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $111 (1.11x)
Ends before Round 3?55%55%53¢ bid, 57¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed57¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $175 (1.75x)Ends before Round 3?55%Polymarket 55%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Ends before Round 3?
55%
55%
53¢ bid, 57¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
57¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Ends before Round 3?
55%
Polymarket 55%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ends before Round 3?
- Last price
- 55%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 57¢
- Sell Yes
- 53¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $175 (1.75x)
O/U 1.5 Rounds55%55%17¢ bid, 93¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed93¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $108 (1.08x)O/U 1.5 Rounds55%Polymarket 55%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
O/U 1.5 Rounds
55%
55%
17¢ bid, 93¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
93¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $108 (1.08x)
O/U 1.5 Rounds
55%
Polymarket 55%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 1.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 55%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 93¢
- Sell Yes
- 17¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $108 (1.08x)
Fight won by KO/TKO?53%53%23¢ bid, 83¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed83¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $120 (1.20x)Fight won by KO/TKO?53%Polymarket 53%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Fight won by KO/TKO?
53%
53%
23¢ bid, 83¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
83¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Fight won by KO/TKO?
53%
Polymarket 53%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 53%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 83¢
- Sell Yes
- 23¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $120 (1.20x)
Decision or Draw50%50%3¢ bid, 97¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed97¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $103 (1.03x)Decision or Draw50%Polymarket 50%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Decision or Draw
50%
50%
3¢ bid, 97¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
97¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Decision or Draw
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Decision or Draw
- Last price
- 50%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 97¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
Fight won by decision?50%50%3¢ bid, 97¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed97¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $103 (1.03x)Fight won by decision?50%Polymarket 50%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Fight won by decision?
50%
50%
3¢ bid, 97¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
97¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Fight won by decision?
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by decision?
- Last price
- 50%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 97¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
Gugnon in Round 150%50%3¢ bid, 97¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed97¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $103 (1.03x)Gugnon in Round 150%Polymarket 50%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Gugnon in Round 1
50%
50%
3¢ bid, 97¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
97¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Gugnon in Round 1
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gugnon in Round 1
- Last price
- 50%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 97¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
Gugnon in Round 250%50%3¢ bid, 97¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed97¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $103 (1.03x)Gugnon in Round 250%Polymarket 50%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Gugnon in Round 2
50%
50%
3¢ bid, 97¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
97¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Gugnon in Round 2
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gugnon in Round 2
- Last price
- 50%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 97¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
Gugnon in Round 350%50%3¢ bid, 97¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed97¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $103 (1.03x)Gugnon in Round 350%Polymarket 50%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Gugnon in Round 3
50%
50%
3¢ bid, 97¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
97¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Gugnon in Round 3
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gugnon in Round 3
- Last price
- 50%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 97¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
Steele in Round 150%50%3¢ bid, 97¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed97¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $103 (1.03x)Steele in Round 150%Polymarket 50%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Steele in Round 1
50%
50%
3¢ bid, 97¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
97¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Steele in Round 1
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Steele in Round 1
- Last price
- 50%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 97¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
Show 16 more outcomesHide 16 outcomes
Steele in Round 250%50%3¢ bid, 97¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed97¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $103 (1.03x)Steele in Round 250%Polymarket 50%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Steele in Round 2
50%
50%
3¢ bid, 97¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
97¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Steele in Round 2
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Steele in Round 2
- Last price
- 50%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 97¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
Steele in Round 350%50%3¢ bid, 97¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed97¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $103 (1.03x)Steele in Round 350%Polymarket 50%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Steele in Round 3
50%
50%
3¢ bid, 97¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
97¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Steele in Round 3
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Steele in Round 3
- Last price
- 50%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 97¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
Noah Gugnon vs. Kody Steele42.5%42.5%42¢ bid, 43¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed43¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $233 (2.33x)Noah Gugnon vs. Kody Steele42.5%Polymarket 42.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Noah Gugnon vs. Kody Steele
42.5%
42.5%
42¢ bid, 43¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
43¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Noah Gugnon vs. Kody Steele
42.5%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Noah Gugnon vs. Kody Steele
- Last price
- 42.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 43¢
- Sell Yes
- 42¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $233 (2.33x)
- Volume
- $2K
Steele to win by KO/TKO?41%41%18¢ bid, 64¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed64¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $156 (1.56x)Steele to win by KO/TKO?41%Polymarket 41%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Steele to win by KO/TKO?
41%
41%
18¢ bid, 64¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
64¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Steele to win by KO/TKO?
41%
Polymarket 41%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Steele to win by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 41%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 64¢
- Sell Yes
- 18¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $156 (1.56x)
O/U 2.5 Rounds40.5%40.5%39¢ bid, 42¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed42¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $238 (2.38x)O/U 2.5 Rounds40.5%Polymarket 40.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
O/U 2.5 Rounds
40.5%
40.5%
39¢ bid, 42¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
42¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $238 (2.38x)
O/U 2.5 Rounds
40.5%
Polymarket 40.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 2.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 40.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 42¢
- Sell Yes
- 39¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $238 (2.38x)
Fight won by submission?40%40%24¢ bid, 56¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed56¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $179 (1.79x)Fight won by submission?40%Polymarket 40%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Fight won by submission?
40%
40%
24¢ bid, 56¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
56¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Fight won by submission?
40%
Polymarket 40%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by submission?
- Last price
- 40%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 56¢
- Sell Yes
- 24¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $179 (1.79x)
Fight to Go the Distance?35.5%35.5%34¢ bid, 37¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed37¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $270 (2.70x)Fight to Go the Distance?35.5%Polymarket 35.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Fight to Go the Distance?
35.5%
35.5%
34¢ bid, 37¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
37¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Fight to Go the Distance?
35.5%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight to Go the Distance?
- Last price
- 35.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 37¢
- Sell Yes
- 34¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $270 (2.70x)
Ends before Round 2?30%30%28¢ bid, 32¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed32¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $313 (3.13x)Ends before Round 2?30%Polymarket 30%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Ends before Round 2?
30%
30%
28¢ bid, 32¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
32¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Ends before Round 2?
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ends before Round 2?
- Last price
- 30%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 32¢
- Sell Yes
- 28¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $313 (3.13x)
Kody Steele by Submission24%Not listed24%22¢ bid, 24¢ askpolled, 52s ago24¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $417 (4.17x)Kody Steele by Submission24%Kalshi 24%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kody Steele by Submission
24%
Not listed
24%
22¢ bid, 24¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
24¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kody Steele by Submission
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kody Steele by Submission
- Last price
- 24%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 24¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $417 (4.17x)
- Volume
- $2K
Gugnon to win by KO/TKO?22%22%13¢ bid, 31¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed31¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $323 (3.23x)Gugnon to win by KO/TKO?22%Polymarket 22%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Gugnon to win by KO/TKO?
22%
22%
13¢ bid, 31¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
31¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Gugnon to win by KO/TKO?
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gugnon to win by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 22%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
Kody Steele by KO/TKO/DQ22%Not listed22%19¢ bid, 22¢ askpolled, 52s ago22¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $455 (4.55x)Kody Steele by KO/TKO/DQ22%Kalshi 22%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kody Steele by KO/TKO/DQ
22%
Not listed
22%
19¢ bid, 22¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
22¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kody Steele by KO/TKO/DQ
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kody Steele by KO/TKO/DQ
- Last price
- 22%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 22¢
- Sell Yes
- 19¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $455 (4.55x)
- Volume
- $484
Kody Steele by Decision17%Not listed17%15¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, 52s ago17¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $588 (5.88x)Kody Steele by Decision17%Kalshi 17%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kody Steele by Decision
17%
Not listed
17%
15¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
17¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kody Steele by Decision
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kody Steele by Decision
- Last price
- 17%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
- Volume
- $56
Noah Gugnon by KO/TKO/DQ15%Not listed15%14¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 52s ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Noah Gugnon by KO/TKO/DQ15%Kalshi 15%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Noah Gugnon by KO/TKO/DQ
15%
Not listed
15%
14¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Noah Gugnon by KO/TKO/DQ
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Noah Gugnon by KO/TKO/DQ
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $241
Noah Gugnon by Decision14%Not listed14%13¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, 52s ago14¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $714 (7.14x)Noah Gugnon by Decision14%Kalshi 14%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Noah Gugnon by Decision
14%
Not listed
14%
13¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
14¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Noah Gugnon by Decision
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Noah Gugnon by Decision
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
Noah Gugnon by Submission7%Not listed7%6¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 52s ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Noah Gugnon by Submission7%Kalshi 7%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Noah Gugnon by Submission
7%
Not listed
7%
6¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Noah Gugnon by Submission
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Noah Gugnon by Submission
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $202
Draw/No Contest1.5%Not listed1.5%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 52s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Draw/No Contest1.5%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Draw/No Contest
1.5%
Not listed
1.5%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Draw/No Contest
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Draw/No Contest
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Paramount+, Fox Sports
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- O/U 0.5 Rounds
- Ends before Round 3?
- O/U 1.5 Rounds
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list O/U 0.5 Rounds for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Kody Steele vs Noah Gugnon: Method of Victory". O/U 0.5 Rounds leads at 62.5%. Next is Ends before Round 3? at 55%. $5K has traded across 26 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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