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What the markets expect
O/U 0.5 Rounds 82.5%
Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 57.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
O/U 0.5 Rounds82.5%82.5%78¢ bid, 87¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed87¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $115 (1.15x)O/U 0.5 Rounds82.5%Polymarket 82.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 87¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
O/U 0.5 Rounds
82.5%
82.5%
78¢ bid, 87¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
87¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $115 (1.15x)
O/U 0.5 Rounds
82.5%
Polymarket 82.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 87¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 0.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 82.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 87¢
- Sell Yes
- 78¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $115 (1.15x)
O/U 1.5 Rounds57.5%57.5%54¢ bid, 61¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed61¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $164 (1.64x)O/U 1.5 Rounds57.5%Polymarket 57.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 61¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
O/U 1.5 Rounds
57.5%
57.5%
54¢ bid, 61¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
61¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $164 (1.64x)
O/U 1.5 Rounds
57.5%
Polymarket 57.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 61¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 1.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 57.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 61¢
- Sell Yes
- 54¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $164 (1.64x)
Ends before Round 3?56.5%56.5%55¢ bid, 58¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed58¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $172 (1.72x)Ends before Round 3?56.5%Polymarket 56.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Ends before Round 3?
56.5%
56.5%
55¢ bid, 58¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
58¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Ends before Round 3?
56.5%
Polymarket 56.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ends before Round 3?
- Last price
- 56.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 58¢
- Sell Yes
- 55¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $172 (1.72x)
Noah Gugnon vs. Kody Steele42.5%42.5%42¢ bid, 43¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed43¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $233 (2.33x)Noah Gugnon vs. Kody Steele42.5%Polymarket 42.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Noah Gugnon vs. Kody Steele
42.5%
42.5%
42¢ bid, 43¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
43¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Noah Gugnon vs. Kody Steele
42.5%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Noah Gugnon vs. Kody Steele
- Last price
- 42.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 43¢
- Sell Yes
- 42¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $233 (2.33x)
- Volume
- $7K
O/U 2.5 Rounds40.5%40.5%39¢ bid, 42¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed42¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $238 (2.38x)O/U 2.5 Rounds40.5%Polymarket 40.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
O/U 2.5 Rounds
40.5%
40.5%
39¢ bid, 42¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
42¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $238 (2.38x)
O/U 2.5 Rounds
40.5%
Polymarket 40.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 2.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 40.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 42¢
- Sell Yes
- 39¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $238 (2.38x)
Fight won by KO/TKO?35%35%32¢ bid, 38¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed38¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $263 (2.63x)Fight won by KO/TKO?35%Polymarket 35%polled, just nowBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Fight won by KO/TKO?
35%
35%
32¢ bid, 38¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
38¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Fight won by KO/TKO?
35%
Polymarket 35%polled, just nowBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 35%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 38¢
- Sell Yes
- 32¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $263 (2.63x)
Decision or Draw34.5%34.5%30¢ bid, 39¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed39¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $256 (2.56x)Decision or Draw34.5%Polymarket 34.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Decision or Draw
34.5%
34.5%
30¢ bid, 39¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
39¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Decision or Draw
34.5%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Decision or Draw
- Last price
- 34.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 39¢
- Sell Yes
- 30¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $256 (2.56x)
Fight won by decision?34.5%34.5%30¢ bid, 39¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed39¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $256 (2.56x)Fight won by decision?34.5%Polymarket 34.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Fight won by decision?
34.5%
34.5%
30¢ bid, 39¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
39¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Fight won by decision?
34.5%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by decision?
- Last price
- 34.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 39¢
- Sell Yes
- 30¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $256 (2.56x)
Fight to Go the Distance?34%34%33¢ bid, 35¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed35¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $286 (2.86x)Fight to Go the Distance?34%Polymarket 34%polled, just nowBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Fight to Go the Distance?
34%
34%
33¢ bid, 35¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
35¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Fight to Go the Distance?
34%
Polymarket 34%polled, just nowBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight to Go the Distance?
- Last price
- 34%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 35¢
- Sell Yes
- 33¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $286 (2.86x)
- Volume
- $516
Fight won by submission?32%32%29¢ bid, 35¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed35¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $286 (2.86x)Fight won by submission?32%Polymarket 32%polled, just nowBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Fight won by submission?
32%
32%
29¢ bid, 35¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
35¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Fight won by submission?
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, just nowBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by submission?
- Last price
- 32%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 35¢
- Sell Yes
- 29¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $286 (2.86x)
Show 16 more outcomesHide 16 outcomes
Ends before Round 2?31.5%31.5%29¢ bid, 34¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed34¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $294 (2.94x)Ends before Round 2?31.5%Polymarket 31.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Ends before Round 2?
31.5%
31.5%
29¢ bid, 34¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
34¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Ends before Round 2?
31.5%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ends before Round 2?
- Last price
- 31.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 34¢
- Sell Yes
- 29¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $294 (2.94x)
- Volume
- $17
Decision / Draw / No Contest29%Not listed29%20¢ bid, 32¢ askpolled, 3 min ago32¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $313 (3.13x)Decision / Draw / No Contest29%Kalshi 29%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Decision / Draw / No Contest
29%
Not listed
29%
20¢ bid, 32¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
32¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Decision / Draw / No Contest
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Decision / Draw / No Contest
- Last price
- 29%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 32¢
- Sell Yes
- 20¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $313 (3.13x)
- Volume
- $200
Kody Steele to win in Round 122%Not listed22%19¢ bid, 22¢ askpolled, 3 min ago22¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $455 (4.55x)Kody Steele to win in Round 122%Kalshi 22%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kody Steele to win in Round 1
22%
Not listed
22%
19¢ bid, 22¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
22¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kody Steele to win in Round 1
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kody Steele to win in Round 1
- Last price
- 22%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 22¢
- Sell Yes
- 19¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $455 (4.55x)
- Volume
- $296
Steele in Round 119.5%19.5%15¢ bid, 24¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed24¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $417 (4.17x)Steele in Round 119.5%Polymarket 19.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Steele in Round 1
19.5%
19.5%
15¢ bid, 24¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
24¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Steele in Round 1
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Steele in Round 1
- Last price
- 19.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 24¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $417 (4.17x)
Steele to win by KO/TKO?19.5%19.5%17¢ bid, 22¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed22¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $455 (4.55x)Steele to win by KO/TKO?19.5%Polymarket 19.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Steele to win by KO/TKO?
19.5%
19.5%
17¢ bid, 22¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
22¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Steele to win by KO/TKO?
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Steele to win by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 19.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 22¢
- Sell Yes
- 17¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $455 (4.55x)
Gugnon to win by KO/TKO?17%17%15¢ bid, 19¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed19¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $526 (5.26x)Gugnon to win by KO/TKO?17%Polymarket 17%polled, just nowBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Gugnon to win by KO/TKO?
17%
17%
15¢ bid, 19¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
19¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Gugnon to win by KO/TKO?
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, just nowBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gugnon to win by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 17%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 19¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $526 (5.26x)
Kody Steele to win in Round 216%Not listed16%9¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, 3 min ago17¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $588 (5.88x)Kody Steele to win in Round 216%Kalshi 16%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kody Steele to win in Round 2
16%
Not listed
16%
9¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
17¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kody Steele to win in Round 2
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kody Steele to win in Round 2
- Last price
- 16%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
- Volume
- $437
Steele in Round 215.5%15.5%11¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed20¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $500 (5.00x)Steele in Round 215.5%Polymarket 15.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Steele in Round 2
15.5%
15.5%
11¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
20¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Steele in Round 2
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Steele in Round 2
- Last price
- 15.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
Noah Gugnon to win in Round 112%Not listed12%9¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 3 min ago12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Noah Gugnon to win in Round 112%Kalshi 12%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Noah Gugnon to win in Round 1
12%
Not listed
12%
9¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Noah Gugnon to win in Round 1
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Noah Gugnon to win in Round 1
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $496
Gugnon in Round 111.5%11.5%7¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed16¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $625 (6.25x)Gugnon in Round 111.5%Polymarket 11.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Gugnon in Round 1
11.5%
11.5%
7¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
16¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Gugnon in Round 1
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gugnon in Round 1
- Last price
- 11.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
Gugnon in Round 210%10%5¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed15¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Gugnon in Round 210%Polymarket 10%polled, just nowBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Gugnon in Round 2
10%
10%
5¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
15¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Gugnon in Round 2
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, just nowBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gugnon in Round 2
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
Kody Steele to win in Round 310%Not listed10%7¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 3 min ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Kody Steele to win in Round 310%Kalshi 10%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kody Steele to win in Round 3
10%
Not listed
10%
7¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kody Steele to win in Round 3
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kody Steele to win in Round 3
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $826
Noah Gugnon to win in Round 29%Not listed9%5¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 3 min ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Noah Gugnon to win in Round 29%Kalshi 9%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Noah Gugnon to win in Round 2
9%
Not listed
9%
5¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Noah Gugnon to win in Round 2
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Noah Gugnon to win in Round 2
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $126
Steele in Round 36.5%6.5%3¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed10¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Steele in Round 36.5%Polymarket 6.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Steele in Round 3
6.5%
6.5%
3¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
10¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Steele in Round 3
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Steele in Round 3
- Last price
- 6.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
Gugnon in Round 36%6%3¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Gugnon in Round 36%Polymarket 6%polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Gugnon in Round 3
6%
6%
3¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Gugnon in Round 3
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gugnon in Round 3
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
Noah Gugnon to win in Round 36%Not listed6%5¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 3 min ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Noah Gugnon to win in Round 36%Kalshi 6%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Noah Gugnon to win in Round 3
6%
Not listed
6%
5¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Noah Gugnon to win in Round 3
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Noah Gugnon to win in Round 3
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $751
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Paramount+, Fox Sports
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- O/U 0.5 Rounds
- O/U 1.5 Rounds
- Ends before Round 3?
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list O/U 0.5 Rounds for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Kody Steele vs. Noah Gugnon: Round of Victory". O/U 0.5 Rounds leads at 82.5%. Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 57.5%. $10K has traded across 26 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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