The Prediction Markets

Kolkata Municipal Election Winner

Closes
Dec 31, 2026, in 2 months
Traded
$4K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) 82.7%

Next is Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) at 6.8%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) 82.7%Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) 6.8%Indian National Congress (INC) 5.6%All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) 4.8%Left Front (LF) 0.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
82.7%
Polymarket 88.5%(82.7% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
Last price
88.5%
Fair, margin removed
82.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nationalist Congress Party (NCP)
6.8%
Polymarket 7.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $787 (7.87x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nationalist Congress Party (NCP)
Last price
7.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12.7¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$787 (7.87x)
Volume
$318
Trade this on Polymarket
Indian National Congress (INC)
5.6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $862 (8.62x)
Polymarket
Contract
Indian National Congress (INC)
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$862 (8.62x)
Volume
$241
Trade this on Polymarket
All India Trinamool Congress (AITC)
4.8%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,235 (12.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
All India Trinamool Congress (AITC)
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.1¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,235 (12.3x)
Volume
$402
Trade this on Polymarket
Left Front (LF)
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Left Front (LF)
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$222
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
  • Nationalist Congress Party (NCP)
  • Indian National Congress (INC)

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Kolkata Municipal Election Winner". Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leads at 82.7%. Next is Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) at 6.8%. $4K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.

Municipal elections are to be scheduled to be held for the Kolkata Municipal Corporation, India, in December 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or listed alliance that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Kolkata municipal elections. The “Left Front” alliance will include all seats won by Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)), Communist Party of India (CPI), All India Forward Bloc (AIFB), Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP), Communist Party of India (Marxist–Leninist) Liberation (CPI(ML)L), Revolutionary Communist Party of India (RCPI), Marxist Forward Bloc (MFB). Independent candidates will not be considered for resolution. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple listed parties or alliances for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the listed party or alliance that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed party or alliance whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or alliance in the Kolkata Municipal Corporation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Kolkata, West Bengal, and Indian governments, including the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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