The Prediction Markets

LA-04 House election: Matt Gromlich vote percent (1st Round)

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$18K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

At least 4% 97%

Next is At least 6% at 94%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
At least 4%
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 44s ago
Kalshi
Contract
At least 4%
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
94¢
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 6%
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 6%
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 8%
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 8%
Last price
73%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 10%
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 10%
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 12%
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 12%
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$810
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 14%
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 14%
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$602
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 16%
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 16%
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 32%
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 32%
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 40%
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 40%
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 30%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 30%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 6 more outcomes
At least 34%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 34%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 18%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 18%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 36%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 36%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 42%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 42%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$600
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 44%
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 44%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 38%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 38%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Elections Division, Office of the Secretary of State, Baton Rouge, LA

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 4%
  • At least 6%
  • At least 8%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "LA-04 House election: Matt Gromlich vote percent (1st Round)". At least 4% leads at 97%. Next is At least 6% at 94%. $18K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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