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Best ask
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What the markets expect
At least 2% 96.5%
Next is At least 4% at 95%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
At least 2%96.5%96.5%94¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, 2 h ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)At least 2%96.5%Kalshi 96.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
At least 2%
96.5%
96.5%
94¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
At least 2%
96.5%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- At least 2%
- Last price
- 96.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 94¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
At least 4%95%95%91¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, 2 h ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)At least 4%95%Kalshi 95%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
At least 4%
95%
95%
91¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
At least 4%
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- At least 4%
- Last price
- 95%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 91¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
At least 5%89%89%83¢ bid, 95¢ askpolled, 2 h ago95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)At least 5%89%Kalshi 89%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
At least 5%
89%
89%
83¢ bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
At least 5%
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- At least 5%
- Last price
- 89%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- 83¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
At least 6%78%78%70¢ bid, 82¢ askpolled, 2 h ago82¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $122 (1.22x)At least 6%78%Kalshi 78%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
At least 6%
78%
78%
70¢ bid, 82¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
82¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $122 (1.22x)
At least 6%
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- At least 6%
- Last price
- 78%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 82¢
- Sell Yes
- 70¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $122 (1.22x)
- Volume
- $410
At least 7%62%62%56¢ bid, 68¢ askpolled, 2 h ago68¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $147 (1.47x)At least 7%62%Kalshi 62%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
At least 7%
62%
62%
56¢ bid, 68¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
68¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $147 (1.47x)
At least 7%
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- At least 7%
- Last price
- 62%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 68¢
- Sell Yes
- 56¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $147 (1.47x)
At least 8%44%44%38¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, 2 h ago50¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $200 (2.00x)At least 8%44%Kalshi 44%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
At least 8%
44%
44%
38¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
50¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
At least 8%
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- At least 8%
- Last price
- 44%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 38¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
At least 10%25%25%14¢ bid, 26¢ askpolled, 2 h ago26¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $385 (3.85x)At least 10%25%Kalshi 25%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
At least 10%
25%
25%
14¢ bid, 26¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
26¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $385 (3.85x)
At least 10%
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- At least 10%
- Last price
- 25%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 26¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $385 (3.85x)
- Volume
- $400
At least 12%12%12%2¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, 2 h ago14¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $714 (7.14x)At least 12%12%Kalshi 12%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
At least 12%
12%
12%
2¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
14¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
At least 12%
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- At least 12%
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
- Volume
- $600
At least 14%8%8%2¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 2 h ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)At least 14%8%Kalshi 8%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
At least 14%
8%
8%
2¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
At least 14%
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- At least 14%
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $1K
At least 30%5%5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 2 h ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)At least 30%5%Kalshi 5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
At least 30%
5%
5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
At least 30%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- At least 30%
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $5K
Show 8 more outcomesHide 8 outcomes
At least 32%5%5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 2 h ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)At least 32%5%Kalshi 5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
At least 32%
5%
5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
At least 32%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- At least 32%
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $5K
At least 34%5%5%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 2 h ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)At least 34%5%Kalshi 5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
At least 34%
5%
5%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
At least 34%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- At least 34%
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $3K
At least 36%5%5%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 2 h ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)At least 36%5%Kalshi 5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
At least 36%
5%
5%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
At least 36%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- At least 36%
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $3K
At least 42%4%4%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 2 h ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)At least 42%4%Kalshi 4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
At least 42%
4%
4%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
At least 42%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- At least 42%
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $4K
At least 44%4%4%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 2 h ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)At least 44%4%Kalshi 4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
At least 44%
4%
4%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
At least 44%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- At least 44%
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $3K
At least 38%3%3%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 2 h ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)At least 38%3%Kalshi 3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
At least 38%
3%
3%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
At least 38%
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- At least 38%
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $3K
At least 40%3%3%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 2 h ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)At least 40%3%Kalshi 3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
At least 40%
3%
3%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
At least 40%
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- At least 40%
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $3K
At least 46%3%3%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 2 h ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)At least 46%3%Kalshi 3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
At least 46%
3%
3%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
At least 46%
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- At least 46%
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Elections Division, Office of the Secretary of State, Baton Rouge, LA
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- At least 2%
- At least 4%
- At least 5%
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "LA-05 House election: Dan McKay vote percent (1st Round)". At least 2% leads at 96.5%. Next is At least 4% at 95%. $31K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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