The Prediction Markets

Lake Mead end-of-month water elevation in Dec 2026?

Closes
Jan 7, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$26K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 1033 Ft 65%

Next is Above 1034 Ft at 60%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 1033 Ft
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1033 Ft
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1034 Ft
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1034 Ft
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$474
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1035 Ft
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1035 Ft
Last price
51%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1036 Ft
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1036 Ft
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1037 Ft
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1037 Ft
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1038 Ft
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1038 Ft
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1039 Ft
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1039 Ft
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1040 Ft
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1040 Ft
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 1033 Ft
  • Above 1034 Ft
  • Above 1035 Ft

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Lake Mead end-of-month water elevation in Dec 2026?". Above 1033 Ft leads at 65%. Next is Above 1034 Ft at 60%. $26K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 7, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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