The Prediction Markets

Lake Mead end-of-month water elevation in Jun 2026?

Closed
Jul 3, 2026
Traded
$8K
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jul 3, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 126 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 1041 Ft
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 3031 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1041 Ft
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
96¢
Volume
$197
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1042.5 Ft
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1042.5 Ft
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$202
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1044 Ft
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1044 Ft
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1043.5 Ft
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1043.5 Ft
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$819
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1041.5 Ft
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1041.5 Ft
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$28
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1043 Ft
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1043 Ft
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$665
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1042 Ft
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1042 Ft
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1044.5 Ft
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1044.5 Ft
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1046 Ft
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1046 Ft
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$110
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1045.5 Ft
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1045.5 Ft
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$537
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1046.5 Ft
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1046.5 Ft
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1045 Ft
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1045 Ft
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$789
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 1041 Ft
  • Above 1042.5 Ft
  • Above 1044 Ft

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Lake Mead end-of-month water elevation in Jun 2026?". Above 1041 Ft last traded at 99%. Next is Above 1042.5 Ft at 96%. $8K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Jul 3, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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