The Prediction Markets

Lead Bank in Anthropic's IPO?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$133K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Morgan Stanley 84.3%

Next is Goldman Sachs at 10.8%. The venues differ most on Goldman Sachs (Polymarket 10.1%, Kalshi 13%), a 2.9-point gap.

Morgan Stanley 84.3%Goldman Sachs 10.8%Citigroup 1.2%Bank of America 0.9%No Listed Underwriter 0.9%5 others 1.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Morgan Stanley
84.3%
Polymarket 87.5%(86.7% fair)polled, 60s agoKalshi 86%(80.1% fair)polled, 60s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
Morgan Stanley
Last price
87.5%
Fair, margin removed
86.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Morgan Stanley
Last price
86%
Fair, margin removed
80.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 86¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 86¢.

Goldman Sachs
10.8%
Polymarket 10.1%polled, 60s agoKalshi 13%(12.1% fair)polled, 60s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Goldman Sachs
Last price
10.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
9.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Goldman Sachs
Last price
13%
Fair, margin removed
12.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 11¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 11¢.

Citigroup
1.2%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 60s agoKalshi 3%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Citigroup
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Citigroup
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Bank of America
0.9%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 60s agoKalshi 2%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bank of America
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bank of America
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No Listed Underwriter
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
No Listed Underwriter
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$949
Trade this on Kalshi
Barclays
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Barclays
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Wells Fargo
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wells Fargo
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
JPMorgan Chase
0.5%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 60s agoKalshi 1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
JPMorgan
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
JPMorgan Chase
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$832
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Deutsche Bank
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Deutsche Bank
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
UBS
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
UBS
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Kalshi names the lead-left underwriter; Polymarket the lead underwriter. Both resolve 'no IPO' to a separate outcome by the same deadline.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: SEC EDGAR database filings
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi names the lead-left underwriter; Polymarket the lead underwriter. Both resolve 'no IPO' to a separate outcome by the same deadline.
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Morgan Stanley
  • Goldman Sachs
  • Citigroup

Live prices for Morgan Stanley

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Lead Bank in Anthropic's IPO?". Morgan Stanley leads at 84.3%. Next is Goldman Sachs at 10.8%. $133K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of Anthropic. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or Anthropic completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.” If multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of Anthropic’s final initial public offering prospectus, once released. The primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from Anthropic. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More economics markets

See all economics markets