The Prediction Markets

Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$82K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Goldman Sachs 59.8%

Next is Morgan Stanley at 32.4%. The venues differ most on Goldman Sachs (Polymarket 51%, Kalshi 67%), a 16-point gap.

Goldman Sachs 59.8%Morgan Stanley 32.4%No Listed Underwriter 5.1%Citigroup 0.6%Bank of America 0.5%5 others 1.6%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Goldman SachsArb
59.8%
Polymarket 51%(53.9% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 67%(68.4% fair)polled, 20s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Goldman Sachs
Last price
51%
Fair, margin removed
53.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Goldman Sachs
Last price
67%
Fair, margin removed
68.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 64¢ and selling on Kalshi at 65¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Morgan Stanley
32.4%
Polymarket 37%(39.1% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 22%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Morgan Stanley
Last price
37%
Fair, margin removed
39.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Morgan Stanley
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 21¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 23¢.

No Listed Underwriter
5.1%
Kalshi 5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
No Listed Underwriter
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Citigroup
0.6%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Citigroup
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Citigroup
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Bank of America
0.5%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bank of America
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bank of America
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

JPMorgan
0.5%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
JPMorgan
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
JPMorgan Chase
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Barclays
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Barclays
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Deutsche Bank
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Deutsche Bank
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
UBS
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
UBS
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Wells Fargo
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wells Fargo
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Goldman Sachs on Polymarket at 64¢, sell on Kalshi at 65¢ (100 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Kalshi names the lead-left underwriter; Polymarket the lead underwriter. Both resolve 'no IPO' to a separate outcome by the same deadline.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: SEC EDGAR database filings
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi names the lead-left underwriter; Polymarket the lead underwriter. Both resolve 'no IPO' to a separate outcome by the same deadline.
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Goldman Sachs
  • Morgan Stanley
  • No Listed Underwriter

Live prices for Goldman Sachs

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?". Goldman Sachs leads at 59.8%. Next is Morgan Stanley at 32.4%. $82K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of OpenAI. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or OpenAI completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.” If multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of OpenAI's final initial public offering prospectus, once released. The primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from OpenAI. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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