The Prediction Markets

Leganes vs Mallorca

LiveKickoff In play now; prices move fast
Traded
$31K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Mallorca 66.3%

Next is Draw at 22%. The venues differ most on Mallorca (Polymarket 63%, Kalshi 74%), a 11-point gap.

Mallorca 66.3%Draw 22%Leganes 11.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
MallorcaArb
66.3%
Polymarket 63%(64.3% fair)polled, 57s agoKalshi 74%(72.5% fair)polled, 57s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
RCD Mallorca
Last price
63%
Fair, margin removed
64.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mallorca
Last price
74%
Fair, margin removed
72.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 72¢ and selling on Kalshi at 73¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Draw
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 57s agoKalshi 21%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Draw (CD Leganés vs. RCD Mallorca)
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$768
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 21¢.

Leganes
11.7%
Polymarket 13%polled, 57s agoKalshi 7%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
CD Leganés
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Leganes
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$128
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Mallorca on Polymarket at 72¢, sell on Kalshi at 73¢ (100 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Same bet: both settle on the 90-minute result

Both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.

Only differs in an edge case

  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: laliga.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: BBC Sport, ESPN
Show full rule comparison
  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
  • Both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
  • Trading closes Oct 24, 2026, 2:15 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2026, 2:15 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Mallorca
  • Draw
  • Leganes

Live prices for Mallorca

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
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Cover all 3 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Leganes vs Mallorca". Mallorca leads at 66.3%. Next is Draw at 22%. $31K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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