The Prediction Markets

Leipzig vs Elversberg: First Half Winner

LiveKickoff In play now; prices move fast
Traded
$27K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

RB Leipzig 57.5%

Next is Tie 1st Half at 50%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
RB Leipzig
57.5%
Polymarket 57.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
Contract
RB Leipzig
Last price
57.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tie 1st Half
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie 1st Half
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Leipzig wins 1st Half
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Leipzig wins 1st Half
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Draw (RB Leipzig vs. SV 07 Elversberg)
23.5%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Draw (RB Leipzig vs. SV 07 Elversberg)
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$417
Trade this on Polymarket
SV 07 Elversberg
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
SV 07 Elversberg
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Elversberg wins 1st Half
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elversberg wins 1st Half
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$293
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: bundesliga.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Fox Sports

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • RB Leipzig
  • Tie 1st Half
  • Leipzig wins 1st Half

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list RB Leipzig for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Leipzig vs Elversberg: First Half Winner". RB Leipzig leads at 57.5%. Next is Tie 1st Half at 50%. $27K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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