The Prediction Markets

LigaPro Serie A (Ecuador): 2026 Winner

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$6K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
3 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

CSD Independiente del Valle 76%

Next is Independiente del Valle at 53.2%. The venues differ most on Barcelona SC (Polymarket 3.4%, Kalshi 16%), a 13-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
CSD Independiente del Valle
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
CSD Independiente del Valle
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Independiente del Valle
53.2%
Polymarket 53.2%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Independiente del Valle
Last price
53.2%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
8.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$106
Trade this on Polymarket
CD Cuenca
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
CD Cuenca
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
CD Tecnico Universitario
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
CD Tecnico Universitario
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$52
Trade this on Kalshi
CS Emelec
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
CS Emelec
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$53
Trade this on Kalshi
Manta FC
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Manta FC
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$138
Trade this on Kalshi
LDU Quito
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
LDU Quito
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$733
Trade this on Kalshi
Leones Futbol Club
16.5%
Kalshi 16.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Leones Futbol Club
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Guayaquil City FC
15.5%
Kalshi 15.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Guayaquil City FC
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Trade this on Kalshi
SD Aucas
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
SD Aucas
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$51
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
Barcelona SC
12.8%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 4 min agoKalshi 16%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Barcelona SC
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$96
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Barcelona SC
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$568
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 16¢.

CD Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
CD Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Delfin SC
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Delfin SC
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Libertad Loja
10.5%
Kalshi 10.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Libertad Loja
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Mushuc Runa SC
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mushuc Runa SC
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Orense SC
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Orense SC
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
CSD Independiente del Valle
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
CSD Macara
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$9
Trade this on Kalshi

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 13, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: ligapro.ec
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fox Sports, ESPN
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 13, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • CSD Independiente del Valle
  • Independiente del Valle
  • CD Cuenca

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list CSD Independiente del Valle for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "LigaPro Serie A (Ecuador): 2026 Winner". CSD Independiente del Valle leads at 76%. Next is Independiente del Valle at 53.2%. $6K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club is determined as the champion of the LigaPro Serie A (Ecuador) for the 2026 season. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed participant to be named as the champion of LigaPro Serie A (Ecuador) for the 2026 season per the rules of LigaPro Serie A (Ecuador) (e.g., the participant is eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If this event is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or a champion has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source will be official information from the LigaPro Serie A (Ecuador); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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