The Prediction Markets

Ligue 1 Relegation

Closes
Jul 15, 2027, in 9 months
Traded
$23K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Le Havre 67.5%

Next is Troyes at 47.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Le Havre
67.5%
Kalshi 67.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Le Havre
Last price
67.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Troyes
47.5%
Kalshi 47.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Troyes
Last price
47.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Le Mans
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Le Mans
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Angers
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Angers
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
Auxerre
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Auxerre
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Nice
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nice
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi
Stade Brest 29
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stade Brest 29
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Lorient
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lorient
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
PSG
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
PSG
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
Toulouse
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Toulouse
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Strasbourg Alsace
7.5%
Kalshi 7.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Strasbourg Alsace
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Marseille
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marseille
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Lens
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lens
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Lille
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lille
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Lyon
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lyon
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Monaco
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Monaco
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Paris
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paris
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Stade Rennes
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stade Rennes
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Le Havre
  • Troyes
  • Le Mans

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Ligue 1 Relegation". Le Havre leads at 67.5%. Next is Troyes at 47.5%. $23K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jul 15, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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