The Prediction Markets

Linera FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 14 months
Traded
$20K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

200M 26.9%

Next is 300M at 24.6%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

200M 26.9%300M 24.6%100M 19.5%400M 8.3%800M 5.2%4 others 15.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
200M
26.9%
Polymarket 29%(26.9% fair)polled, 38s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
200M
Last price
29%
Fair, margin removed
26.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
300M
24.6%
Polymarket 26.5%(24.6% fair)polled, 38s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
300M
Last price
26.5%
Fair, margin removed
24.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
100M
19.5%
Polymarket 21%(19.5% fair)polled, 38s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
100M
Last price
21%
Fair, margin removed
19.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
400M
8.3%
Polymarket 9%(8.3% fair)polled, 38s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
400M
Last price
9%
Fair, margin removed
8.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
800M
5.2%
Polymarket 5.7%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
800M
Last price
5.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$607
Trade this on Polymarket
700M
4.6%
Polymarket 5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
700M
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
1B
3.8%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
1B
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
500M
3.7%
Polymarket 4%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
500M
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
600M
3.4%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
600M
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$341
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: x.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 200M
  • 300M
  • 100M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Linera FDV above ___ one day after launch?". 200M leads at 26.9%. Next is 300M at 24.6%. $20K has traded across 9 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Linera's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only an official token launched by Linera after the creation of this market will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Linera (https://x.com/linera_io) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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