The Prediction Markets

Ljubljana mayoral election winner?

Closes
Nov 15, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$154K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Zoran Jankovic 67.6%

Next is Luka Mesec at 20.3%. The venues differ most on Luka Mesec (Polymarket 22.5%, Kalshi 18%), a 4.5-point gap.

Zoran Jankovic 67.6%Luka Mesec 20.3%Anton Rop 3%Klemen Boštjančič 2.6%Aleš Vrhovec 2%6 others 4.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Zoran Jankovic
67.6%
Polymarket 71.5%(69.5% fair)polled, 2 min agoKalshi 71%(68.4% fair)polled, 57s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zoran Janković
Last price
71.5%
Fair, margin removed
69.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Zoran Janković
Last price
71%
Fair, margin removed
68.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 70¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 72¢.

Luka MesecArb
20.3%
Polymarket 22.5%(21.9% fair)polled, 2 min agoKalshi 18%(17.3% fair)polled, 57s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Luka Mesec
Last price
22.5%
Fair, margin removed
21.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Luka Mesec
Last price
18%
Fair, margin removed
17.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 20¢ and selling on Polymarket at 21¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Anton Rop
3%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anton Rop
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Anton Rop
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3.8¢.

Klemen Boštjančič
2.6%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Klemen Boštjančič
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3.3¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,030 (30.3x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Aleš Vrhovec
2%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aleš Vrhovec
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Aleksandar Repic
0.8%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aleksandar Repić
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Aleksandar Repić
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Ales Primc
0.8%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aleš Primc
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Aleš Primc
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Gregor Novak
0.8%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gregor Novak
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gregor Novak
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Apolonija Simon
0.7%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Apolonija Simon
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Apolonija Simon
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Jasmin Feratovic
0.7%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jasmin Feratović
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jasmin Feratović
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Mihael Jarc
0.7%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mihael Jarc
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mihael Jarc
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Luka Mesec on Kalshi at 20¢, sell on Polymarket at 21¢ (100 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 16, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 15, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: State Election Commission of Slovenia
Show full rule comparison
  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes Nov 16, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 15, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Zoran Jankovic
  • Luka Mesec
  • Anton Rop

Live prices for Zoran Jankovic

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Ljubljana mayoral election winner?". Zoran Jankovic leads at 67.6%. Next is Luka Mesec at 20.3%. $154K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 15, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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