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What the markets expect
Nongshim RedForce 86.5%
Next is KT Rolster at 2.9%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
Nongshim RedForce86.5%95.4%86.5% fair92.6¢ bid, 98.2¢ askpolled, 31s ago98.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $102 (1.02x)Nongshim RedForce86.5%Polymarket 95.4%(86.5% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 98.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Nongshim RedForce
86.5%
95.4%
86.5% fair
92.6¢ bid, 98.2¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
98.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Nongshim RedForce
86.5%
Polymarket 95.4%(86.5% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 98.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Nongshim RedForce
- Last price
- 95.4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 86.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 98.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 92.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
- Volume
- $10K
KT Rolster2.9%3.2%0.3¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 31s ago6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)KT Rolster2.9%Polymarket 3.2%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
KT Rolster
2.9%
3.2%
0.3¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
KT Rolster
2.9%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- KT Rolster
- Last price
- 3.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $388
DN SOOPers1.5%1.7%0.3¢ bid, 3.1¢ askpolled, 31s ago3.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)DN SOOPers1.5%Polymarket 1.7%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
DN SOOPers
1.5%
1.7%
0.3¢ bid, 3.1¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
3.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
DN SOOPers
1.5%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- DN SOOPers
- Last price
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,226 (32.3x)
- Volume
- $771
HANJIN BRION0.8%0.9%0.1¢ bid, 1.6¢ askpolled, 31s ago1.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)HANJIN BRION0.8%Polymarket 0.9%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
HANJIN BRION
0.8%
0.9%
0.1¢ bid, 1.6¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
1.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
HANJIN BRION
0.8%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- HANJIN BRION
- Last price
- 0.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $6,250 (62.5x)
- Volume
- $519
Invictus Gaming0.8%0.9%0.5¢ bid, 1.2¢ askpolled, 31s ago1.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)Invictus Gaming0.8%Polymarket 0.9%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Invictus Gaming
0.8%
0.9%
0.5¢ bid, 1.2¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
1.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Invictus Gaming
0.8%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Invictus Gaming
- Last price
- 0.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $8,333 (83.3x)
- Volume
- $426
Bilibili Gaming0.6%0.6%0.1¢ bid, 1.1¢ askpolled, 31s ago1.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)Bilibili Gaming0.6%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Bilibili Gaming
0.6%
0.6%
0.1¢ bid, 1.1¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
1.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Bilibili Gaming
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Bilibili Gaming
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $9,091 (90.9x)
- Volume
- $215
BNK FEARX0.6%0.6%0.1¢ bid, 1.1¢ askpolled, 31s ago1.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)BNK FEARX0.6%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
BNK FEARX
0.6%
0.6%
0.1¢ bid, 1.1¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
1.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
BNK FEARX
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- BNK FEARX
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $9,091 (90.9x)
- Volume
- $643
Dplus KIA0.6%0.7%0.1¢ bid, 1.2¢ askpolled, 31s ago1.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)Dplus KIA0.6%Polymarket 0.7%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Dplus KIA
0.6%
0.7%
0.1¢ bid, 1.2¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
1.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Dplus KIA
0.6%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Dplus KIA
- Last price
- 0.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $8,333 (83.3x)
- Volume
- $423
EDward Gaming0.5%0.6%— bid, 1.1¢ askpolled, 31s ago1.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)EDward Gaming0.5%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
EDward Gaming
0.5%
0.6%
— bid, 1.1¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
1.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
EDward Gaming
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- EDward Gaming
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $9,091 (90.9x)
- Volume
- $184
Gen.G0.5%0.6%— bid, 1.1¢ askpolled, 31s ago1.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)Gen.G0.5%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Gen.G
0.5%
0.6%
— bid, 1.1¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
1.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Gen.G
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gen.G
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $9,091 (90.9x)
- Volume
- $184
Show 14 more outcomesHide 14 outcomes
Hanwha Life Esports0.5%0.6%0.1¢ bid, 1.1¢ askpolled, 31s ago1.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)Hanwha Life Esports0.5%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Hanwha Life Esports
0.5%
0.6%
0.1¢ bid, 1.1¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
1.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Hanwha Life Esports
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Hanwha Life Esports
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $9,091 (90.9x)
- Volume
- $105
KIWOOM DRX0.5%0.5%0.1¢ bid, 0.9¢ askpolled, 31s ago0.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $11,111 (111x)KIWOOM DRX0.5%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
KIWOOM DRX
0.5%
0.5%
0.1¢ bid, 0.9¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
0.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
KIWOOM DRX
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- KIWOOM DRX
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $236
LNG Esports0.5%0.6%0.1¢ bid, 1.1¢ askpolled, 31s ago1.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)LNG Esports0.5%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
LNG Esports
0.5%
0.6%
0.1¢ bid, 1.1¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
1.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
LNG Esports
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- LNG Esports
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $9,091 (90.9x)
- Volume
- $105
T10.5%0.6%— bid, 1.1¢ askpolled, 31s ago1.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)T10.5%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
T1
0.5%
0.6%
— bid, 1.1¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
1.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
T1
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- T1
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $9,091 (90.9x)
- Volume
- $194
Team WE0.5%0.6%— bid, 1.2¢ askpolled, 31s ago1.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)Team WE0.5%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Team WE
0.5%
0.6%
— bid, 1.2¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
1.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Team WE
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Team WE
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $8,333 (83.3x)
- Volume
- $34
Weibo Gaming0.5%0.6%— bid, 1.1¢ askpolled, 31s ago1.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)Weibo Gaming0.5%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Weibo Gaming
0.5%
0.6%
— bid, 1.1¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
1.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Weibo Gaming
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Weibo Gaming
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $9,091 (90.9x)
- Volume
- $184
LGD Gaming0.4%0.4%— bid, 0.8¢ askpolled, 31s ago0.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $12,500 (125x)LGD Gaming0.4%Polymarket 0.4%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
LGD Gaming
0.4%
0.4%
— bid, 0.8¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
0.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $12,500 (125x)
LGD Gaming
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- LGD Gaming
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.8¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $12,500 (125x)
- Volume
- $194
JD Gaming0.3%0.4%0.2¢ bid, 0.5¢ askpolled, 31s ago0.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $20,000 (200x)JD Gaming0.3%Polymarket 0.4%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
JD Gaming
0.3%
0.4%
0.2¢ bid, 0.5¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
0.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $20,000 (200x)
JD Gaming
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- JD Gaming
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $20,000 (200x)
- Volume
- $215
ThunderTalk Gaming0.3%0.4%0.2¢ bid, 0.5¢ askpolled, 31s ago0.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $20,000 (200x)ThunderTalk Gaming0.3%Polymarket 0.4%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
ThunderTalk Gaming
0.3%
0.4%
0.2¢ bid, 0.5¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
0.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $20,000 (200x)
ThunderTalk Gaming
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- ThunderTalk Gaming
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $20,000 (200x)
- Volume
- $215
Anyone's Legend0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 31s ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Anyone's Legend0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Anyone's Legend
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Anyone's Legend
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Anyone's Legend
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $215
Ultra Prime0.2%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 31s ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Ultra Prime0.2%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Ultra Prime
0.2%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Ultra Prime
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ultra Prime
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $260
Ninjas in Pyjamas0.1%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 31s ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Ninjas in Pyjamas0.1%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Ninjas in Pyjamas
0.1%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Ninjas in Pyjamas
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ninjas in Pyjamas
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $254
Oh My God0.1%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 31s ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Oh My God0.1%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Oh My God
0.1%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Oh My God
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Oh My God
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $233
Top Esports0.1%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 31s ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Top Esports0.1%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Top Esports
0.1%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Top Esports
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Top Esports
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $516
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Nongshim RedForce
- KT Rolster
- DN SOOPers
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "LoL Offseason: Deft Next Team". Nongshim RedForce leads at 86.5%. Next is KT Rolster at 2.9%. $17K has traded across 24 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.
This market will resolve to the next team Deft officially joins by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If Deft does not officially join a new team by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If Deft joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to "Other". If Deft retires or is not under contract with any professional team by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Only a signing as a player to a team's main League of Legends roster will count. Signings to academy or development rosters, or to non-player roles (e.g., coach, analyst, or content creator), will not count. For the purposes of this market, Deft is considered to have officially joined a team once his signing is officially announced by the team or by Deft; the announcement must be made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The date his contract takes effect, his registration on an official league roster, and the date of his first match for the team will not be considered. Market titles refer to the team Deft joins for the 2027 season, and resolve per these rules. An official signing announcement prior to the market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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