The Prediction Markets

Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Nithya Raman)

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$44K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Nithya Raman, ≥2% 44%

Next is Nithya Raman, ≥4% at 39%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Nithya Raman, ≥2%
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, ≥2%
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nithya Raman, ≥4%
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, ≥4%
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nithya Raman, ≥6%
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, ≥6%
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nithya Raman, ≥8%
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, ≥8%
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Raman 0-4%
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raman 0-4%
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bass 0-4%
24%
Polymarket 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $362 (3.62x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bass 0-4%
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27.6¢
Sell Yes
20.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$362 (3.62x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nithya Raman, ≥10%
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, ≥10%
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Raman 4-8%
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raman 4-8%
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nithya Raman, ≥12%
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, ≥12%
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$206
Trade this on Kalshi
Raman 8-12%
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raman 8-12%
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
Raman 12-16%
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raman 12-16%
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bass 4-8%
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $840 (8.40x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bass 4-8%
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11.9¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$840 (8.40x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nithya Raman, ≥14%
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, ≥14%
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Bass 8-12%
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bass 8-12%
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
5.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nithya Raman, ≥16%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, ≥16%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Bass 16-20%
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bass 16-20%
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Raman 20+%
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raman 20+%
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bass 20+%
4.3%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bass 20+%
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bass 12-16%
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bass 12-16%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Raman 16-20%
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raman 16-20%
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Nithya Raman, ≥2%
  • Nithya Raman, ≥4%
  • Nithya Raman, ≥6%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Nithya Raman, ≥2% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Nithya Raman)". Nithya Raman, ≥2% leads at 44%. Next is Nithya Raman, ≥4% at 39%. $44K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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