The Prediction Markets

Louisiana Senate margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$18K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Letlow, 3+ pts 77%

Next is Letlow, 5+ pts at 69%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Letlow, 3+ pts
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, just nowBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Letlow, 3+ pts
Last price
77%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Letlow, 5+ pts
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, just nowBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Letlow, 5+ pts
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$808
Trade this on Kalshi
Letlow, 7+ pts
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, just nowBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Letlow, 7+ pts
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$425
Trade this on Kalshi
Letlow, 9+ pts
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, just nowBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Letlow, 9+ pts
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$346
Trade this on Kalshi
Letlow, 11+ pts
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, just nowBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Letlow, 11+ pts
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$243
Trade this on Kalshi
Letlow, 13+ pts
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, just nowBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Letlow, 13+ pts
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Letlow, 15+ pts
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, just nowBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Letlow, 15+ pts
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$82
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-5%
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $331 (3.31x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30.2¢
Sell Yes
26.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$331 (3.31x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 5-10%
25.5%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-10%
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Letlow, 17+ pts
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, just nowBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Letlow, 17+ pts
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$34
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 14 more outcomes
Letlow, 19+ pts
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, just nowBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Letlow, 19+ pts
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 10-15%
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Letlow, 21+ pts
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, just nowBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Letlow, 21+ pts
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
3.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$201
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-20%
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 20-25%
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Letlow, 25+ pts
9.2%
Kalshi 9.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 9.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Letlow, 25+ pts
Last price
9.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,087 (10.9x)
Volume
$342
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat Wins
8.1%
Polymarket 8.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,031 (10.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
8.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.7¢
Sell Yes
6.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,031 (10.3x)
Volume
$422
Trade this on Polymarket
Letlow, 27+ pts
7.8%
Kalshi 7.8%polled, just nowBest Yes 7.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Letlow, 27+ pts
Last price
7.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$211
Trade this on Kalshi
Letlow, 29+ pts
5.9%
Kalshi 5.9%polled, just nowBest Yes 6.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Letlow, 29+ pts
Last price
5.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$120
Trade this on Kalshi
Letlow, 23+ pts
5.6%
Kalshi 5.6%polled, just nowBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Letlow, 23+ pts
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Letlow, 31+ pts
3.4%
Kalshi 3.4%polled, just nowBest Yes 6.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Letlow, 31+ pts
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$228
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 25-30%
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$271
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 35%+
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35%+
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$867
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 30-35%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$271
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Louisiana Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Letlow, 3+ pts
  • Letlow, 5+ pts
  • Letlow, 7+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Letlow, 3+ pts for this event.

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Louisiana Senate margin of victory". Letlow, 3+ pts leads at 77%. Next is Letlow, 5+ pts at 69%. $18K has traded across 24 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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