The Prediction Markets

Louisiana's 3rd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
2 h ago
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What the markets expect

Republicans, 19+ pts 87.8%

Next is Republicans, 22+ pts at 82%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Republicans, 19+ pts
87.8%
Kalshi 87.8%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 93.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $107 (1.07x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 19+ pts
Last price
87.8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
93.6¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$107 (1.07x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 22+ pts
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 22+ pts
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 25+ pts
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 25+ pts
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 28+ pts
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 28+ pts
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$55
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 31+ pts
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 31+ pts
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$55
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 34+ pts
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 34+ pts
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$55
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 37+ pts
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 37+ pts
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$55
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 40+ pts
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 40+ pts
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 43+ pts
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 43+ pts
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$804
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 46+ pts
13.5%
Kalshi 13.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 46+ pts
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 49+ pts
6.7%
Kalshi 6.7%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 49+ pts
Last price
6.7%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Louisiana Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Republicans, 19+ pts
  • Republicans, 22+ pts
  • Republicans, 25+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Louisiana's 3rd District margin of victory". Republicans, 19+ pts leads at 87.8%. Next is Republicans, 22+ pts at 82%. $1K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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