The Prediction Markets

Louisiana's 4th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$8K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Republicans, 9+ pts 91.9%

Next is Republicans, 12+ pts at 86.8%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Republicans, 9+ pts
91.9%
Kalshi 91.9%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 97.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 9+ pts
Last price
91.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97.8¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 12+ pts
86.8%
Kalshi 86.8%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 92.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 12+ pts
Last price
86.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92.5¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 15+ pts
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 15+ pts
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 18+ pts
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 18+ pts
Last price
73%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$406
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 21+ pts
63.5%
Kalshi 63.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 21+ pts
Last price
63.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 24+ pts
53.5%
Kalshi 53.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 24+ pts
Last price
53.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 27+ pts
44.5%
Kalshi 44.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 27+ pts
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 30+ pts
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 30+ pts
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 33+ pts
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 33+ pts
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 36+ pts
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 36+ pts
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$126
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
Republicans, 39+ pts
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 39+ pts
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
6.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$904
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 42+ pts
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 42+ pts
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$823
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 51+ pts
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 51+ pts
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$647
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 57+ pts
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 57+ pts
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 45+ pts
6.8%
Kalshi 6.8%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 45+ pts
Last price
6.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 48+ pts
6.6%
Kalshi 6.6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 48+ pts
Last price
6.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$647
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 54+ pts
4.3%
Kalshi 4.3%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 8.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,163 (11.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 54+ pts
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,163 (11.6x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Republicans, 9+ pts
  • Republicans, 12+ pts
  • Republicans, 15+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Louisiana's 4th District margin of victory". Republicans, 9+ pts leads at 91.9%. Next is Republicans, 12+ pts at 86.8%. $8K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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