The Prediction Markets

Louisiana's 5th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$25K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Republicans, 18+ pts 93.6%

Next is Republicans, 9+ pts at 92.9%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Republicans, 18+ pts
93.6%
Kalshi 93.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 18+ pts
Last price
93.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$910
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 9+ pts
92.9%
Kalshi 92.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 9+ pts
Last price
92.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97.8¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 12+ pts
92.9%
Kalshi 92.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 12+ pts
Last price
92.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97.8¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 15+ pts
92.4%
Kalshi 92.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 15+ pts
Last price
92.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97.8¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 21+ pts
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 21+ pts
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 24+ pts
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 24+ pts
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$922
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 27+ pts
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 27+ pts
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$351
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 30+ pts
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 30+ pts
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 33+ pts
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 33+ pts
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 36+ pts
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 36+ pts
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
Republicans, 39+ pts
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 39+ pts
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 45+ pts
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 45+ pts
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$722
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 48+ pts
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 48+ pts
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$530
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 42+ pts
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 42+ pts
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 54+ pts
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 54+ pts
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$174
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 63+ pts
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 63+ pts
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 57+ pts
35.5%
Kalshi 35.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 57+ pts
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 51+ pts
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 51+ pts
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 60+ pts
34.5%
Kalshi 34.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 60+ pts
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Republicans, 18+ pts
  • Republicans, 9+ pts
  • Republicans, 12+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Louisiana's 5th District margin of victory". Republicans, 18+ pts leads at 93.6%. Next is Republicans, 9+ pts at 92.9%. $25K has traded across 19 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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