The Prediction Markets

Lowest temperature in Austin on Oct 23, 2026?

Closes
Oct 24, 2026, in 16 hours
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

52° to 53° 90.7%

Next is 50° to 51° at 5.2%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

52° to 53° 90.7%50° to 51° 5.2%49° or below 1.1%54° to 55° 1%56° to 57° 1%58° or above 1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
52° to 53°
90.7%
Kalshi 88%(90.7% fair)polled, 58s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
52° to 53°
Last price
88%
Fair, margin removed
90.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$498
Trade this on Kalshi
50° to 51°
5.2%
Kalshi 5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
50° to 51°
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$171
Trade this on Kalshi
49° or below
1.1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
49° or below
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$235
Trade this on Kalshi
54° to 55°
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
54° to 55°
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$424
Trade this on Kalshi
56° to 57°
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
56° to 57°
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$417
Trade this on Kalshi
58° or above
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
58° or above
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$650
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Weather Company

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 52° to 53°
  • 50° to 51°
  • 49° or below

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Lowest temperature in Austin on Oct 23, 2026?". 52° to 53° leads at 90.7%. Next is 50° to 51° at 5.2%. $2K has traded across 6 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 24, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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