The Prediction Markets

Lowest temperature in Jeddah on October 21?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$1K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
5 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

28°C 94.5%

Next is 27°C at 49%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
28°C
94.5%
Polymarket 94.5%polled, 5 min ago
Polymarket
Contract
28°C
Last price
94.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
89¢
Volume
$230
Trade this on Polymarket
27°C
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
27°C
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
26°C
47.5%
Polymarket 47.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
26°C
Last price
47.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$32
Trade this on Polymarket
25°C
46%
Polymarket 46%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
25°C
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$47
Trade this on Polymarket
23°C or below
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
23°C or below
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$193
Trade this on Polymarket
24°C
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
24°C
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$317
Trade this on Polymarket
29°C
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
29°C
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Polymarket
31°C
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
31°C
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$270
Trade this on Polymarket
32°C
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
32°C
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Polymarket
33°C or higher
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
33°C or higher
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Polymarket
30°C
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
30°C
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$44
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: weather.gov

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 28°C
  • 27°C
  • 26°C

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Lowest temperature in Jeddah on October 21?". 28°C leads at 94.5%. Next is 27°C at 49%. $1K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 21, 2026.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=oejn If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

See all climate markets