The Prediction Markets

Lowest temperature in Miami on Oct 22, 2026?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$7K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

71° to 72° 86%

Next is 72-73°F at 54%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
71° to 72°
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
71° to 72°
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$844
Trade this on Kalshi
72-73°F
54%
Polymarket 54%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
72-73°F
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$619
Trade this on Polymarket
70-71°F
36%
Polymarket 36%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
70-71°F
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$262
Trade this on Polymarket
68-69°F
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
68-69°F
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Trade this on Polymarket
66-67°F
20%
Polymarket 20%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
66-67°F
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Trade this on Polymarket
69° to 70°
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
69° to 70°
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$212
Trade this on Kalshi
64-65°F
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
64-65°F
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Polymarket
63°F or below
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
63°F or below
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Polymarket
64° or below
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
64° or below
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
65° to 66°
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
65° to 66°
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$150
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
67° to 68°
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
67° to 68°
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$155
Trade this on Kalshi
73° or above
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
73° or above
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
74-75°F
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
74-75°F
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$758
Trade this on Polymarket
76-77°F
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
76-77°F
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Polymarket
78-79°F
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
78-79°F
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Polymarket
80-81°F
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
80-81°F
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Polymarket
82°F or higher
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
82°F or higher
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$102
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: weather.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Weather Company

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 71° to 72°
  • 72-73°F
  • 70-71°F

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list 71° to 72° for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Lowest temperature in Miami on Oct 22, 2026?". 71° to 72° leads at 86%. Next is 72-73°F at 54%. $7K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 23, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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