The Prediction Markets

Lyft total rides above __ in Q1?

Closed
May 14, 2026
Traded
$28K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on May 14, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 175 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
235m
95.6%
Polymarket 95.6%polled, 4221 h agoBest Yes 98.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
235m
Last price
95.6%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
98.3¢
Sell Yes
92.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
240m
84.5%
Polymarket 84.5%polled, 4221 h agoBest Yes 87¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Polymarket
Contract
240m
Last price
84.5%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
230m
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 4221 h agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
230m
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$137
Trade this on Polymarket
270m
45.4%
Polymarket 45.4%polled, 4221 h agoBest Yes 89.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
270m
Last price
45.4%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
89.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$389
Trade this on Polymarket
260m
44%
Polymarket 44%polled, 4221 h agoBest Yes 86.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
260m
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
86.2¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
245m
37.5%
Polymarket 37.5%polled, 4221 h agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
245m
Last price
37.5%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
250m
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 4221 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
250m
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
255m
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 4221 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
255m
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
265m
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 4221 h agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
265m
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
3.7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,703 (27.0x)
Volume
$233
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 235m
  • 240m
  • 230m

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Lyft total rides above __ in Q1?". 235m last traded at 95.6%. Next is 240m at 84.5%. $28K has traded across 9 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on May 14, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lyft’s total number of rides for the first fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company’s official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company’s official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to “No”. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Lyft’s official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, regulatory filings, and webcast transcripts/recordings. Note: if the specified company reports multiple variations of the specified metric, the first version of the metric found in the following hierarchy of earnings materials will be used. 1) Earnings Press Release 2) Earnings Investor Presentation 3) Regulatory Filings 4) Transcripts or recordings of Earnings webcast.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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