The Prediction Markets

Lyft total rides in Q3

Closes
Mar 5, 2027, in 4 months
Traded
$7K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 258 million 88%

Next is Above 260 million at 85%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 258 million
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 258 million
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$43
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 260 million
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 260 million
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$38
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 262 million
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 262 million
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$403
Trade this on Kalshi
255M
81.5%
Polymarket 81.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
255M
Last price
81.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
64.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$410
Trade this on Polymarket
265M
79.5%
Polymarket 79.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
265M
Last price
79.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$437
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 264 million
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 264 million
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$358
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 266 million
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 266 million
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$339
Trade this on Kalshi
275M
64%
Polymarket 64%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 76¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Polymarket
Contract
275M
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$520
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 268 million
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 268 million
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$380
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 270 million
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 270 million
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$870
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 6 more outcomes
Above 272 million
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 272 million
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$834
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 274 million
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 274 million
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$312
Trade this on Kalshi
285M
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
285M
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 278 million
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 278 million
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$542
Trade this on Kalshi
295M
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
295M
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$65
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 276 million
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 276 million
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$44
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 258 million
  • Above 260 million
  • Above 262 million

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 258 million for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Lyft total rides in Q3". Above 258 million leads at 88%. Next is Above 260 million at 85%. $7K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 5, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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