The Prediction Markets

Lyon curfew effectively lifted by...?

Closes
Oct 24, 2026, in 1 day
Traded
$12K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

November 7 89.5%

Next is October 31 at 53%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
November 7
89.5%
Polymarket 89.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 7
Last price
89.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$541
Trade this on Polymarket
October 31
53%
Polymarket 53%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 31
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
October 24
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 24
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • November 7
  • October 31
  • October 24

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Lyon curfew effectively lifted by...?". November 7 leads at 89.5%. Next is October 31 at 53%. $12K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 24, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any full calendar day between the day of market creation and the specified date, inclusive (Lyon time), passes without any curfew in effect in any part of the City of Lyon, France. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A calendar day passes without any curfew in effect if, at no point between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM Lyon time on that day, a curfew is in effect in any part of the City of Lyon. The City of Lyon refers to the municipality (commune) of Lyon, within its official municipal boundaries. A curfew refers to a governmental order which generally prohibits the general population from being present in, or moving through, public spaces in the City of Lyon, or a defined area of it, during a specific timeframe or specific hours. A curfew of any scope will count, whether citywide or limited to specific arrondissements, districts, or neighborhoods of the City of Lyon, and must be officially declared by the City of Lyon, the Prefecture of the Rhône, or a French national authority. A broader curfew (e.g. department-wide or nationwide) will count so long as it applies to at least part of the City of Lyon. Unofficial guidance, voluntary advisories, curfews applying only to minors or other specific groups, and conditional or prospective statements that a curfew may be imposed will not be considered curfews for the purposes of this market. Orders restricting demonstrations or gatherings, closures of specific parks, facilities or venues, restrictions on business hours or sales, and transit suspensions will not be considered curfews unless they also impose a curfew as defined above. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government announcements; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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