The Prediction Markets

Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz

Starts in 5 h 26 minKickoff
Traded
$69K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5 81.5%

Next is Taylor Fritz at 79%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5
81.5%
Polymarket 81.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
81.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Taylor Fritz
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Taylor Fritz
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5
56.5%
Polymarket 56.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set Handicap +/-1.5
Last price
56.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$9
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5
55%
Polymarket 55%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5
54.5%
Polymarket 54.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 21.5
Last price
54.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$16
Trade this on Polymarket
Completed Match
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5
45%
Polymarket 45%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 22.5
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5
41%
Polymarket 41%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Game Spread +/-4.5
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5
38.5%
Polymarket 38.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 23.5
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5
36%
Polymarket 36%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$29
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 Winner
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 Winner
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Altmaier
21.7%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 48s agoKalshi 22%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$40K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Daniel Altmaier
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 21¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 22¢.

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Oct 30, 2026, 1:30 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 6, 2026, 1:10 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5
  • Taylor Fritz
  • Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz". Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5 leads at 81.5%. Next is Taylor Fritz at 79%. $69K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 30, 2026.

This market refers to the tennis match between Daniel Altmaier and Taylor Fritz in the Lyon Open, originally scheduled for October 23, 2026 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Altmaier' if Daniel Altmaier advances against Taylor Fritz. This market will resolve to 'Taylor Fritz' if Taylor Fritz advances against Daniel Altmaier. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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