The Prediction Markets

Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima

Starts in 7 hKickoff
Traded
$23K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5 74%

Next is Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5 at 68%. The venues differ most on Cobolli (Polymarket 33.5%, Kalshi 35%), a 1.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5
74%
Polymarket 74%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5
68%
Polymarket 68%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Match O/U 21.5
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5
66%
Polymarket 66%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
66%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Brandon Nakashima
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brandon Nakashima
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5
58.5%
Polymarket 58.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Match O/U 22.5
Last price
58.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5
52%
Polymarket 52%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Match O/U 23.5
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5
51%
Polymarket 51%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Game Spread +/-2.5
Last price
51%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Completed Match
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5
45.5%
Polymarket 45.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
45.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5
40%
Polymarket 40%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set 1 Winner
Last price
40%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5
39.5%
Polymarket 39.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set 2 Winner
Last price
39.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5
37.5%
Polymarket 37.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
37.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5
36%
Polymarket 36%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$429
Trade this on Polymarket
Cobolli
34.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 39s agoKalshi 35%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Flavio Cobolli
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 34¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 34¢.

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Oct 30, 2026, 5:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 6, 2026, 5:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5
  • Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5
  • Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima". Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5 leads at 74%. Next is Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5 at 68%. $23K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 30, 2026.

This market refers to the tennis match between Flavio Cobolli and Brandon Nakashima in the Lyon Open, originally scheduled for October 23, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Flavio Cobolli' if Flavio Cobolli advances against Brandon Nakashima. This market will resolve to 'Brandon Nakashima' if Brandon Nakashima advances against Flavio Cobolli. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More sports markets

See all sports markets