The Prediction Markets

Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti

Starts in 9 hKickoff
Traded
$6K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5 77%

Next is Lorenzo Musetti at 68%. The venues differ most on Van Assche (Polymarket 32.5%, Kalshi 34%), a 1.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5
77%
Polymarket 77%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lorenzo Musetti
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lorenzo Musetti
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5
54%
Polymarket 54%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Match O/U 21.5
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5
52.5%
Polymarket 52.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Completed Match
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5
46%
Polymarket 46%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Match O/U 22.5
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5
44%
Polymarket 44%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$318
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 6 more outcomes
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5
41%
Polymarket 41%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Match O/U 23.5
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5
38%
Polymarket 38%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5
37.5%
Polymarket 37.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 1 Winner
Last price
37.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5
36.5%
Polymarket 36.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 2 Winner
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Polymarket
Van Assche
33.4%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 4 min agoKalshi 34%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Luca Van Assche
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 33¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 33¢.

Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Oct 30, 2026, 6:30 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 6, 2026, 6:10 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5
  • Lorenzo Musetti
  • Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti". Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5 leads at 77%. Next is Lorenzo Musetti at 68%. $6K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 30, 2026.

This market refers to the tennis match between Luca Van Assche and Lorenzo Musetti in the Lyon Open, originally scheduled for October 23, 2026 at 2:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Luca Van Assche' if Luca Van Assche advances against Lorenzo Musetti. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Musetti' if Lorenzo Musetti advances against Luca Van Assche. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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