The Prediction Markets

Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz

Starts in 13 hKickoff
Traded
$25K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5 85%

Next is Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5 at 66.5%. The venues differ most on Paul (Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 37%), a 1.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5
85%
Polymarket 85%polled, just nowBest Yes 86¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5
66.5%
Polymarket 66.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 Winner
Last price
66.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Taylor Fritz
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, just nowBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Taylor Fritz
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5
64.5%
Polymarket 64.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 21.5
Last price
64.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5
60.5%
Polymarket 60.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 67¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
60.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5
58%
Polymarket 58%polled, just nowBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Game Spread +/-1.5
Last price
58%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5
56%
Polymarket 56%polled, just nowBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 22.5
Last price
56%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Completed Match
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, just now
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
1¢
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, just nowBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, just nowBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, just nowBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, just nowBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 23.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5
41.5%
Polymarket 41.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
41.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5
40.5%
Polymarket 40.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 Winner
Last price
40.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5
39.5%
Polymarket 39.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Taylor Fritz (-1.5) vs Tommy Paul (+1.5)
Last price
39.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Polymarket
Paul
36.1%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, just nowKalshi 37%polled, just nowBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tommy Paul
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 36¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 36¢.

Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5
36%
Polymarket 36%polled, just nowBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Tommy Paul (-1.5) vs Taylor Fritz (+1.5)
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Oct 31, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2026, 10:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5
  • Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5
  • Taylor Fritz

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz". Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5 leads at 85%. Next is Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5 at 66.5%. $25K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 31, 2026.

This market refers to the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Taylor Fritz in the Lyon Open, originally scheduled for October 24, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tommy Paul' if Tommy Paul advances against Taylor Fritz. This market will resolve to 'Taylor Fritz' if Taylor Fritz advances against Tommy Paul. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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