The Prediction Markets

M25 Tamworth: Blake Ellis vs Zane Stevens

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$233K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Yes 58.5%

Next is Blake Ellis at 57%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Yes
58.5%
Polymarket 58.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 61¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
58.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Blake Ellis
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, just nowBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Blake Ellis
Last price
57%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$130K
Trade this on Kalshi
Zane Stevens
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, just nowBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zane Stevens
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$89K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: itftennis.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ITF, Flashscore, Fox Sports

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Yes
  • Blake Ellis
  • Zane Stevens

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Yes for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "M25 Tamworth: Blake Ellis vs Zane Stevens". Yes leads at 58.5%. Next is Blake Ellis at 57%. $233K has traded across 3 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 29, 2026.

This market refers to the tennis match between Blake Ellis and Zane Stevens in the M25 Tamworth, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 22, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Blake Ellis' if Blake Ellis advances against Zane Stevens. This market will resolve to 'Zane Stevens' if Zane Stevens advances against Blake Ellis. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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