The Prediction Markets

M25 Tamworth: Matthew Dellavedova vs Naoki Nakagawa

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$100K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Dellavedova 72.1%

Next is Set Handicap: Matthew Dellavedova (-1.5) vs Naoki Nakagawa (+1.5) at 50%. The venues differ most on Dellavedova (Polymarket 70%, Kalshi 73%), a 3.0-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Dellavedova
72.1%
Polymarket 70%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 73%polled, just nowBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
M25 Tamworth: Matthew Dellavedova vs Naoki Nakagawa
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Matthew Dellavedova
Last price
73%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$37K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 73¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 73¢.

Set Handicap: Matthew Dellavedova (-1.5) vs Naoki Nakagawa (+1.5)
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 min ago
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Matthew Dellavedova (-1.5) vs Naoki Nakagawa (+1.5)
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Naoki Nakagawa
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, just nowBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Naoki Nakagawa
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$48K
Trade this on Kalshi
Set Handicap: Naoki Nakagawa (-1.5) vs Matthew Dellavedova (+1.5)
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Naoki Nakagawa (-1.5) vs Matthew Dellavedova (+1.5)
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 29, 2026, 8:45 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 5, 2026, 9:10 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: itftennis.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ITF, Flashscore, Fox Sports
Show full rule comparison
  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
  • Trading closes Oct 29, 2026, 8:45 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 5, 2026, 9:10 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Dellavedova
  • Set Handicap: Matthew Dellavedova (-1.5) vs Naoki Nakagawa (+1.5)
  • Naoki Nakagawa

Live prices for Dellavedova

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "M25 Tamworth: Matthew Dellavedova vs Naoki Nakagawa". Dellavedova leads at 72.1%. Next is Set Handicap: Matthew Dellavedova (-1.5) vs Naoki Nakagawa (+1.5) at 50%. $100K has traded across 4 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 29, 2026.

This market refers to the tennis match between Matthew Dellavedova and Naoki Nakagawa in the M25 Tamworth, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 22, 2026 at 4:45AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matthew Dellavedova' if Matthew Dellavedova advances against Naoki Nakagawa. This market will resolve to 'Naoki Nakagawa' if Naoki Nakagawa advances against Matthew Dellavedova. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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