The Prediction Markets

Maine 02 House General Election: voter turnout

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 260K 93.5%

Next is Above 280K at 85%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 260K
93.5%
Kalshi 93.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 260K
Last price
93.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 280K
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 280K
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 300K
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 300K
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 320K
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 320K
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 330K
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 330K
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 350K
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 350K
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$11
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 360K
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 360K
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$638
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 380K
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 380K
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$420
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 400K
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 400K
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$600
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 440K
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 440K
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 420K
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 420K
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Maine Department of the Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 260K
  • Above 280K
  • Above 300K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Maine 02 House General Election: voter turnout". Above 260K leads at 93.5%. Next is Above 280K at 85%. $2K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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