The Prediction Markets

Maine Senate Election Winner

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$15.2M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Democratic 66.1%

Next is Troy Jackson at 65%. The venues differ most on Republican (Polymarket 33%, Kalshi 34%), a 1.0-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

2 of 20 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Democratic
66.1%
Polymarket 66.5%live, just nowKalshi 66%live, just nowBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Troy Jackson (D)
Price
66.5%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$1.3M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Troy Jackson
Price
66%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$4.5M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 66¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 66¢.

Troy Jackson
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Troy Jackson
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$761K
Trade this on Kalshi
Susan Collins
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Susan Collins
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$1.0M
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican
33.8%
Polymarket 33%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 34%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Susan Collins (R)
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$1.1M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Susan Collins
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$5.3M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 33¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 34¢.

Angus King
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kalshi
Contract
Angus King
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Angus King III
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
Angus King III
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Brian Bryant
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brian Bryant
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dan Kleban
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Kleban
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$109K
Trade this on Kalshi
Graham Platner
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
Graham Platner
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$364K
Trade this on Kalshi
Janet Mills
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
Janet Mills
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$106K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Jared Golden
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jared Golden
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$80K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mattie Daughtrey
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mattie Daughtrey
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nirav Shah
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nirav Shah
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$183K
Trade this on Kalshi
Patrick Dempsey
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
Patrick Dempsey
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$65K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sara Gideon
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sara Gideon
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$38K
Trade this on Kalshi
Shenna Bellows
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shenna Bellows
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$122K
Trade this on Kalshi
Stephen King
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stephen King
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Valli Geiger
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
Valli Geiger
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$66K
Trade this on Kalshi

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: 4 differences

Where they differ

  • Kalshi settles on the party of the officeholder sworn in/inaugurated for the new term; Polymarket settles on the party of the called winner. They differ if the winner dies, withdraws or is not seated before the term starts.
  • Independents: Polymarket assigns a non-affiliated winner by stated caucus (House) or excludes independents from party options (Senate/Governor); Kalshi requires party membership.
  • Kalshi may close early on a media-consensus projection; Polymarket resolves on consensus calls with certification as the fallback.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 3, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: United States Congress, Maine Secretary of State
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi settles on the party of the officeholder sworn in/inaugurated for the new term; Polymarket settles on the party of the called winner. They differ if the winner dies, withdraws or is not seated before the term starts.
  • Independents: Polymarket assigns a non-affiliated winner by stated caucus (House) or excludes independents from party options (Senate/Governor); Kalshi requires party membership.
  • Kalshi may close early on a media-consensus projection; Polymarket resolves on consensus calls with certification as the fallback.
  • Trading closes Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 3, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Democratic
  • Troy Jackson
  • Susan Collins

Live prices for Democratic

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Maine Senate Election Winner". Democratic leads at 66.1%. Next is Troy Jackson at 65%. $15.2M has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Maine U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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