The Prediction Markets

Maine's 1st District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$3K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
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What the markets expect

Pingree, 17+ pts 91.4%

Next is Pingree, 20+ pts at 87%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Pingree, 17+ pts
91.4%
Kalshi 91.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 97.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pingree, 17+ pts
Last price
91.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
97.7¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$206
Trade this on Kalshi
Pingree, 20+ pts
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 94.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pingree, 20+ pts
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
94.9¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Pingree, 23+ pts
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pingree, 23+ pts
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Pingree, 26+ pts
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pingree, 26+ pts
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Pingree, 29+ pts
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pingree, 29+ pts
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$52
Trade this on Kalshi
Pingree, 32+ pts
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pingree, 32+ pts
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$112
Trade this on Kalshi
Pingree, 35+ pts
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pingree, 35+ pts
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pingree, 38+ pts
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pingree, 38+ pts
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
6.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$235
Trade this on Kalshi
Pingree, 41+ pts
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pingree, 41+ pts
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Maine Department of the Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Pingree, 17+ pts
  • Pingree, 20+ pts
  • Pingree, 23+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Maine's 1st District margin of victory". Pingree, 17+ pts leads at 91.4%. Next is Pingree, 20+ pts at 87%. $3K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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