The Prediction Markets

Manchester City punishment announced by...?

Closes
Oct 24, 2026, in 20 hours
Traded
$51K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 min ago
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What the markets expect

December 18 21.5%

Next is December 4 at 17.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
December 18
21.5%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 18
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
December 4
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 4
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
November 20
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 20
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
November 6
8.3%
Polymarket 8.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 6
Last price
8.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8.7¢
Sell Yes
7.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,149 (11.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
October 23
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 23
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • December 18
  • December 4
  • November 20

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Manchester City punishment announced by...?". December 18 leads at 21.5%. Next is December 4 at 17.5%. $51K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 24, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sanctions imposed on Manchester City FC by the independent Regulatory Commission for the breaches found in the Premier League's proceedings against Manchester City FC concerning alleged breaches of the Premier League's financial rules, which were announced on February 6, 2023 (commonly referred to as the "115 charges" case) are officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement of the sanctions set by the independent Regulatory Commission will count, regardless of whether they are later appealed, including a decision that no sanction will be imposed. If sanctions are announced in stages, the first official announcement of any sanction will count. An announcement of the findings of breach without any corresponding sanction, reports or leaks of expected sanctions, and sanctions for any other matter will not count. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Premier League, the independent Regulatory Commission, the Appeal Board, or Manchester City FC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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